Define the term “linkage institutions.”Define the term “linkage institutions.”

Institutions that serve as a means by which Institutions that serve as a means by which individuals can express preferences regarding individuals can express preferences regarding the development of public policy. the development of public policy. Examples Examples include the media or political partiesinclude the media or political parties

Public opinion is the collective Public opinion is the collective opinion of large numbers of people opinion of large numbers of people

Simoncini is Simoncini is awesome!awesome!

Public opinion is particularly important in a Public opinion is particularly important in a democracy if we understand democracy to be democracy if we understand democracy to be fundamentally about the rule of the people. fundamentally about the rule of the people. For the people to rule, the government must For the people to rule, the government must hear their voice. In a real democracy there hear their voice. In a real democracy there must be a close match between public opinion must be a close match between public opinion and government policies and actionsand government policies and actions

But remember that But remember that Hamilton and I worried that Hamilton and I worried that the public’s passions would the public’s passions would infringe on liberty and that infringe on liberty and that

public opinion would be public opinion would be susceptible to radical and susceptible to radical and

frequent shifts.frequent shifts.

• 2/3 or more of government officials2/3 or more of government officials doubted that the public was doubted that the public was

sufficiently informed sufficiently informed

• A substantial majority of federal A substantial majority of federal government officials do not hold thegovernment officials do not hold the abilities of the public in high regardabilities of the public in high regard

• Several decades of polling have Several decades of polling have indicated that most ordinary indicated that most ordinary

Americans do not know much about Americans do not know much about or care about politicsor care about politics

So, do people always So, do people always think the same way think the same way

about all issues?about all issues?

Now, he’s what I Now, he’s what I call HOT. SSSSSScall HOT. SSSSSS

You You bet, bet, SimoSimo

n.n.Not at allNot at all, Paula. And Simoncini , Paula. And Simoncini

is now going to give us some is now going to give us some important terms to remember.important terms to remember.

Distribution: the proportion Distribution: the proportion of the population that holds of the population that holds a particular opiniona particular opinion—such as —such as 52% of the people believe the 52% of the people believe the president is doing a good job.president is doing a good job.

Consensus: a substantial percentage Consensus: a substantial percentage of the public feels a certain way on of the public feels a certain way on a particular issuea particular issue—93% of OHS —93% of OHS Students like having an open campus.Students like having an open campus.

Polarization—a large portion of Polarization—a large portion of the population feels at different the population feels at different ends of the political spectrum ends of the political spectrum on a given issue: on a given issue: Vietnam War Vietnam War or abortionor abortion

Salience—the extent to which people Salience—the extent to which people believe an issue is important to them;believe an issue is important to them;but salience can change over timebut salience can change over time

Hello. My name isHello. My name is George Gallup and Iand I helped revolutionize helped revolutionize

measuring public measuring public opinion with opinion with my my

pioneering ofpioneering of reliable reliable polling methods. polling methods. Who Who can tell Simoncini what can tell Simoncini what

polling is?polling is?Yo! Check it out.Yo! Check it out. Polling is Polling is surveying a population on surveying a population on

an issue—it’s the most an issue—it’s the most reliable way of measuring reliable way of measuring

what the public thinks.what the public thinks.

That’s right. Heck!That’s right. Heck! I,I, President Bill Clinton, President Bill Clinton,

made most made most of myof my policies based on polls policies based on polls

of the people.of the people.

And, Mr. President,And, Mr. President, we atwe at CBS News, in CBS News, in 1967, began exit 1967, began exit polls—a way to polls—a way to make an early make an early

prediction of who prediction of who won an election.won an election.

Hey, that Katie’s HOT! Hey, that Katie’s HOT! That face lift she had That face lift she had

really worked wonders. I really worked wonders. I wonder if she would wonder if she would speak to Hillary. . .speak to Hillary. . .

So, how do pollsters get So, how do pollsters get their information?their information?

Several ways, Ryan. Several ways, Ryan. Some methods we Some methods we use areuse are in-person in-person

interviews, interviews, telephone interviews telephone interviews

and mail and mail questionnaires.questionnaires.

Hey Gallup, don’t Hey Gallup, don’t pollsters use pollsters use

samplingsampling? I’m ? I’m not sure what not sure what

that is.that is.

Check it out, Check it out, Simon.Simon. Sampling is Sampling is the choosing of a the choosing of a group of people to group of people to

participate in a participate in a poll.poll.

All right you All right you people. Now we people. Now we

are going to are going to discuss sampling.discuss sampling.

My hairline is really My hairline is really receding,but, HEY, the receding,but, HEY, the

shirt is hecka cool!shirt is hecka cool!

SurveysSurveys

Most practical way toMost practical way to gather data on the gather data on the attitudes, beliefs, and attitudes, beliefs, and experiences of largeexperiences of large numbers of people. numbers of people.

Interviews, questionnaires, combination Interviews, questionnaires, combination

Wording of questions is important inWording of questions is important in samplingsampling

Avoid leading wordingAvoid leading wordingClosed-ended or forced-choice Closed-ended or forced-choice

questions may not always reveal questions may not always reveal what people are thinking on theirwhat people are thinking on their ownown

Simoncini is an awesome instructor.Simoncini is an awesome instructor.

Strongly Disagree Not Sure Agree StronglyStrongly Disagree Not Sure Agree StronglyDisagreeDisagree Agree Agree

Proper sampling is based on Proper sampling is based on randomly selecting people to randomly selecting people to surveysurvey

Random sampling means that every Random sampling means that every individual has an equal chance of individual has an equal chance of being selectedbeing selected

Margin of error—the sample accuratelyMargin of error—the sample accuratelyreflects the population within a reflects the population within a certain percentage—certain percentage—usuallyusually plus or plus or minus 3 percent for a sample of at minus 3 percent for a sample of at least 1,500 individualsleast 1,500 individuals

Groups of 3-4Groups of 3-4Create a poll on a topic of national Create a poll on a topic of national political interestpolitical interestAdminister it to 15-20 people Administer it to 15-20 people Analyze the data and write a report aboutAnalyze the data and write a report about the poll and what you learned.the poll and what you learned.

Now that you have received Now that you have received a brief overview on polling, a brief overview on polling,

you are going to create, you are going to create, administer and analyze administer and analyze data obtained from your data obtained from your

own polls.own polls.

So, what have we pollsters So, what have we pollsters as well as scholars and as well as scholars and journalists noted about journalists noted about

Americans’ trust in Americans’ trust in government and a decline government and a decline

in in political efficacypolitical efficacy??In the U. S. there has been a long-term,In the U. S. there has been a long-term,steady decline in trust in government,steady decline in trust in government,and a decline inand a decline in political efficacy—the political efficacy—the feeling that people can make a feeling that people can make a difference in what government does and difference in what government does and how government will respond to their how government will respond to their concerns. concerns.

So, what have we pollsters So, what have we pollsters as well as scholars and as well as scholars and journalists noted about journalists noted about

Americans’ trust in Americans’ trust in government and a decline government and a decline

in in political efficacypolitical efficacy??2000 poll:2000 poll:•56% of Americans believe the federal 56% of Americans believe the federal Government does not care what people Government does not care what people ((like melike me) think;) think;•61%: government is run for big interests61%: government is run for big interests

So, how do people form So, how do people form their political ideology their political ideology

and opinions?and opinions?

Through Through political political socializationsocialization: family : family

beliefs, ideas learned beliefs, ideas learned in school, job in school, job experiences; experiences;

influences from influences from income, age, gender, income, age, gender, race and geographic race and geographic

region.region.

So,So, where do we form where do we form most of our political most of our political

opinions?opinions?

Well, Beaver, Well, Beaver, most people most people tend to take tend to take on the same on the same

political political ideology as ideology as

their their parents.parents.

Yes, students, and Yes, students, and a political a political predisposition is a predisposition is a characteristic of characteristic of individuals that is individuals that is predictive of predictive of political behavior.political behavior.

Yeah, but don’t forget that Yeah, but don’t forget that recent researchrecent research suggests suggests

that the that the key period in key period in forming political beliefs is forming political beliefs is during the late teens or during the late teens or

early 20s.early 20s.Also, don’t forget thatAlso, don’t forget that

poor people and poor people and minorities minorities tend to betend to be

more liberal more liberal while somewhile some wealthier people wealthier people tend to tend to

bebe conservative. The conservative. The middle class, middle class, well they well they

depend ondepend on other factors other factors like family and like family and

education.education.

Political research:Political research: African-Americans: 69% African-Americans: 69% Democratic Democratic (2008: 95% voted for Obama)(2008: 95% voted for Obama) More liberal on economic issues More liberal on economic issues butbut conservative on some social conservative on some social issuesissues HispanicsHispanics

a. Cubans: a. Cubans: conservative/Republicanconservative/Republican

b. All others: liberal/Democratic b. All others: liberal/Democratic (2008: 67% voted for Obama)(2008: 67% voted for Obama)

Asians: more Asians: more educated/economically educated/economically successful but less likely to successful but less likely to vote;vote; Socially and economically Socially and economically conservative but Democraticconservative but Democratic ((2008: 62% voted for Obama)2008: 62% voted for Obama)

Miss Becky as Miss Becky as Judge Judy, here. Judge Judy, here. You can see how You can see how WE have changed. WE have changed. So So how have how have American sectional American sectional differences differences moderated in the moderated in the past few decades?past few decades?

The South is becoming less distinct from The South is becoming less distinct from the the rest of the U. S. rest of the U. S.

Large in-migration has diminished Large in-migration has diminished a sense of regional identitya sense of regional identity

Tremendous economic changeTremendous economic changeGap in African American voter registration Gap in African American voter registration no greater in South than in the rest of no greater in South than in the rest of the U. S.the U. S.Politically in South, Blacks vote more with Politically in South, Blacks vote more with the the Democratic Party and whites tend to vote Democratic Party and whites tend to vote moremore with the Republican Partywith the Republican Party

OK, Judge Judy. OK, Judge Judy. So why has there So why has there been such a been such a dramatic dramatic reversal in the reversal in the South?South?

Pay attention, Klinger!Pay attention, Klinger! Because Democrats Because Democrats today, nationwide, today, nationwide, advocate civil rights, advocate civil rights, Frank Matthews and the Frank Matthews and the boys downboys down South South gravitated to the GOP. gravitated to the GOP. Also, during the Also, during the Vietnam war, a lot of Vietnam war, a lot of southern voters felt the southern voters felt the antiwar efforts of a lot antiwar efforts of a lot of Democrats were of Democrats were unpatriotic. unpatriotic.

Students, it’s secret agent Lindsay Students, it’s secret agent Lindsay Dunn, your favorite TA, disguised as Dunn, your favorite TA, disguised as the Sonora prom queen. Today you the Sonora prom queen. Today you

will will report on your polls and we’ll report on your polls and we’ll discuss current eventsdiscuss current events..

Students, it’s secret agent Lindsay Students, it’s secret agent Lindsay Dunn, your favorite TA, disguised as Dunn, your favorite TA, disguised as the Sonora prom queen. Today we’ll the Sonora prom queen. Today we’ll continue to look at continue to look at political ideology political ideology

after completing our review of after completing our review of regional political differencesregional political differences..

Nowadays, Nowadays, Southerners Southerners identify with the identify with the Republican Republican emphasis on emphasis on family values, family values, opposition to opposition to taxes, and law-taxes, and law-and-order issues.and-order issues.

Hippie Becky here. Hippie Becky here. Remember, Remember, people on people on the Pacific the Pacific (or left) (or left) Coast tend to Coast tend to resemble resemble northeasterners—on northeasterners—on the liberal side of the liberal side of things.things.

And, except And, except for folks in for folks in Colorado, Colorado, Rocky Rocky Mountain Mountain folks tend to folks tend to be quite be quite conservative.conservative.

Political research:Political research: Education: generally considered Education: generally considered the strongest single predictor of the strongest single predictor of participation participation in politics.in politics. Gender: about 10% more womenGender: about 10% more womenidentify as Democrats compared to identify as Democrats compared to menmen Age: younger—less likely to Age: younger—less likely to identify identify with a party; lean Democraticwith a party; lean DemocraticOver 60—more critical of Over 60—more critical of governmentgovernment

Religion: Catholics: traditionally Religion: Catholics: traditionally Democratic but now resemble the Democratic but now resemble the majority of Americansmajority of AmericansJews: 54% Democratic; social liberalsJews: 54% Democratic; social liberalsEvangelicals: Republican (52%-32%)Evangelicals: Republican (52%-32%)Mormons: Republican (very Mormons: Republican (very conservative) conservative)

While the While the Democrats and Democrats and

Republicans have Republicans have strong national strong national

party organizationsparty organizations, , many Americans, many Americans,

although belonging although belonging to parties, do not to parties, do not strongly identify strongly identify

with those parties.with those parties.Wow! Did someone Wow! Did someone say party???say party???

Not that Not that type of type of party, party,

Tommy.Tommy.

In fact, among the In fact, among the public,public, many many

people change people change the party they the party they vote for from vote for from

election to election to electionelection. . InIn 19921992 this situation was this situation was called thecalled the “soccer “soccer

mom” vote—mom” vote—young to middle-young to middle-age women who age women who

voted for Bill voted for Bill Clinton because Clinton because he appealed to he appealed to

them as a person.them as a person.

Miss Becky and I Miss Becky and I share the same share the same political ideology. political ideology. Would someone Would someone please define the please define the term term ideologyideology??

A person’s beliefs or ideas about political valuesA person’s beliefs or ideas about political valuesand the role of government—how government and the role of government—how government should work and how it actually works.should work and how it actually works.

OK, so we’re OK, so we’re liberals. What liberals. What tend to be our tend to be our general views general views about stuff?about stuff?

Classical liberals:Classical liberals:Fought to minimize the role of governmentFought to minimize the role of governmentStressed individual rights and perceived Stressed individual rights and perceived

government as the primary threats to government as the primary threats to rights and libertiesrights and liberties

Favored limited governmentFavored limited governmentPerception of the need for government has Perception of the need for government has changedchanged

Contemporary liberalsContemporary liberalsBelieve in the positive uses of Believe in the positive uses of

governmentgovernmentto bring about justice and equality of to bring about justice and equality of opportunityopportunity

Wish to preserve rights of the Wish to preserve rights of the individual &individual &the right to own property, but are willing the right to own property, but are willing to have government intervene in the to have government intervene in the economy to remedy defects of capitalism economy to remedy defects of capitalism

Believe conservatives act in self-Believe conservatives act in self-interestinterestfollowing the maxim: “Let the government following the maxim: “Let the government take care of the rich and the rich, in turn, take care of the rich and the rich, in turn, will take care of the weak.”will take care of the weak.”Believe all are equal and equality of Believe all are equal and equality of opportunity is essentialopportunity is essential

We are We are traditional traditional conservatives. conservatives. What tend to What tend to be our views?be our views?

Property rights and belief in free enterpriseProperty rights and belief in free enterpriseKeep government small (national in particular)Keep government small (national in particular) except for national defenseexcept for national defenseMore pessimistic view of human natureMore pessimistic view of human naturePeople need strong leadership, firm laws, and People need strong leadership, firm laws, and strict moral codesstrict moral codesGovernment must ensure orderGovernment must ensure orderFailures engineered their own failureFailures engineered their own failureConserve status quo and change only in Conserve status quo and change only in moderationmoderation

Pro businessPro businessOppose higher taxes; resist business Oppose higher taxes; resist business regulationregulationGovernment: encourage family valuesGovernment: encourage family valuesGovernment: protect from foreign enemies Government: protect from foreign enemies Government: preserve law and orderGovernment: preserve law and orderGovernment: enforce private contracts, fosterGovernment: enforce private contracts, foster competitive markets, encourage fair tradecompetitive markets, encourage fair tradeOppose “big government”Oppose “big government”

Economic Economic (fiscal)(fiscal) Conservatives: Conservatives: emphasize economic liberty and emphasize economic liberty and freedom from government freedom from government interference interference in the economy; free market is in the economy; free market is the the best route to economic efficiency best route to economic efficiency Economic liberals: government should Economic liberals: government should

ensure equality of opportunity by ensure equality of opportunity by regulating potentially damaging businessregulating potentially damaging business practicespractices

Social conservatives and liberals Social conservatives and liberals disagree over issues such as:disagree over issues such as:

abortionabortiongay marriagegay marriageprayer in public schoolsprayer in public schoolspornographypornographycrime prevention and punishment crime prevention and punishment political dissent political dissent

The best way to discuss The best way to discuss ideology is to showideology is to show the the

political spectrum.

Libe

ral

Mod

erat

e

Con

serv

ativ

e

Nolan Nolan Chart Chart

The Political Spectrum: examples The Political Spectrum: examples

Libe

ral

Libe

ral

Mod

erat

e

Mod

erat

e

Con

serv

ativ

e

Con

serv

ativ

e

(2007)(2007)

So, where do So, where do moderates stand on moderates stand on

those issues?those issues?

We We moderates tend moderates tend to agree with liberals to agree with liberals on some issues and on some issues and

with conservatives on with conservatives on other issues.other issues. For For example, I’m pro example, I’m pro

choice but against choice but against high taxes.high taxes.