Public Opinion and Political Behaviors

Unit IIC

Voting, Campaigns, and Elections

Political Efficacy Voting in elections Learning and understanding political knowledge Having political discussions Attending political meetings Forming interest groups Contacting public officials Campaigning for a candidate, political party, ballot

issue Financial contributions Running for office Protesting public policies and/or officials

Voting - The Democratic Process

Voting exemplifies a “government by the people”

The American electorate determine policy and policymakers

Suffrage is the right to vote - regulated by the states

Vote in local, state, and national elections

Voter Requirements An American citizen of 18 years or older may vote States determine registration requirements and

qualifications– State residency requirement of usually 30 days– Prisoners

Motor-Voter Law (National Voter Registration Act of 1993)– Register to vote when applying/renewing driver’s license– Register by mail

Expansion of Suffrage Religious and property qualifications eliminated by 1800 15th Amendment (1870)

– Guaranteed blacks the right to vote 19th Amendment (1920)

– Guaranteed women the right to vote 23rd Amendment (1961)

– Guaranteed right to vote for D.C. 24th Amendment (1964)

– Prohibited poll taxes– Harper v. Virginia Board of Elections (1966)*

Civil Rights Act of 1964 and Voting Rights Acts of 1965 – Eliminated voting restrictions for blacks– Grandfather clauses, white primaries, literacy tests

26th Amendment (1971)– Guaranteed right to vote for 18 years and older

Who Votes? High Level of Education Higher Incomes White-Collar Workers Older Generations Whites Women Religious Union Members Strong Community Members Strong Political Party Members Competitive Election Districts

Why Won’t People Vote? Negative campaigns Numerous and frequent elections Lack of party identification Similarity between candidates Mistrust in government Apathy or Status Quo Lack of political efficacy Voter registration difficulties Feeling of not belonging to a

community

How People Vote

Vote based on political party Vote based on the issues Vote based on campaigns Vote based on coalitions

Voting Based on Political Party

Party affiliation arguably the primary determinant for a voter

Most voters are Democrats, but not as firmly dedicated

Republicans successful with independents and moderates and have higher voter turnout

Voting Based on the Issues Prospective Voting

– Vote based on information of issues and candidates

– Ex. Pro-life citizen votes for Bush over Gore in 2000

Retrospective Voting– Vote based on past events

whether successful or failed– Ex. The economy suffered

during Bush’s (R) administration hurting McCain’s (R) campaign against Obama (D) in 2008

Voting Based on the Campaign

Reawakens partisan loyalties of voters

Provides voters chance to witness how candidates handle the spotlight and responsibility

Allows voters to judge a candidate’s character and values

Voting Based on a Coalition Democrats

– Strong loyalties among blacks and Jews Support for minority-based policies (affirmative action, civil rights) However, limited popular contribution

– Moderate support among most hispanics Support for pro-immigration policies Low voter turnout

– Catholics and unions divided Based on conservative stance on social issues (abortion)

Republicans– Strong loyalties among businesses and conservatives

Support for tax cuts and limited economic regulation Social conservatives (evangelicals)

– Moderate support among farmers and professionals Farmers and professionals can switch based on economy

Types of ElectionsPrimary Elections

Primary Elections– Nominating elections which voters choose which candidate

from each party to run in general election– Closed Primary

Only voters registered in the party may vote for candidate

– Open Primary Voters choose whichever candidates of either party by selecting

party in the voting booth

– Blanket Primary Voters choose whichever candidate of any party for different

positions

– Runoff Primary Election between top two candidates who received the most votes

but neither received the majority of votes

California Democratic Party v. Jones (2000)

2008 Democratic Primary Election

California ballot

Types of ElectionsGeneral Elections

Voters choose between all candidates nominated by political party or running as independents

Anyone of any or no political party may choose whichever candidate no matter party affiliation

Types of ElectionsSpecial Elections

Voters must decide on an issue or a candidate in special circumstances not related to a primary or general election

Initiative– Citizens propose a new law with enough signatures

Referendum– Legislatures refer a law to be voted by the people

Recall– Citizens petition to hold an election to choose to remove a

public official Special elections are only held at the state or local

levels

Congressional Elections Held every two years on even-numbered years

– Every two years to elect Representatives– Senatorial elections may be held (1/3rd of Senators)

Mid-Term Elections– “Off-Year” Elections held between presidential elections– Lower voter turnout

Incumbency Effect– Generally win elections due to low voter turn out, success in

office, or good campaigning Reelection Rates of U.S. House and U.S. Senate (1964-2012)

– Franking privilege Free mailings to constituents

Coattail Effect– Weak or less known candidates win based on success of

popular presidential candidate through party affiliation

Franking Privilege

Congressional ElectionsCongressional Apportionment and Districts

Congress established number of representatives for House at 435 (1911)– Each state with at least one representative– Currently, one representative per 709,760

Reapportionment every 10 years based on national census Redistricting

– States draw congressional districts– Districts must be relatively equal

Consequences– Malapportionment - districts of unequal size– Gerrymandering

Drawing districts to favor a political party or group

– Baker v. Carr (1962)– Wesberry v. Sanders (1964)– Reynolds v. Sims (1964)– Shaw v. Reno (1993)

Florida’s 2013 U.S. House Districts

Gerrymandering

Congressional ElectionsPrimary Elections

Candidate gathers signatures through a following to be placed on ballot

Primary election determines party nominee

Presidential Elections

Held every four years Phases of Presidential Candidacy:

– Exploration– Announcement– Primaries and Caucuses– Nominating Conventions– General Election Campaign– Electoral College

Presidential ElectionExploration

Does a candidate have enough political and financial support?

Sets up an exploratory committee to find out

Allows for growth of candidacy with media coverage, national attention

Presidential ElectionAnnouncement

Candidate decides to run for office

Sets up press conference to announce candidacy for president

Formal declaration as a national spectacle to propose agenda

Presidential ElectionCampaign Strategies

Staff– Political consultant– Finance chairperson– Communications Director– Press Secretary

Visibility and Appeal Pollster and Tracking Polls Focus Groups Get Out the Vote (GOTV)

Presidential ElectionPrimaries and Caucuses

Primaries– Voters from primary states

vote for the party nominee– State delegates throw support

toward primary vote winner– Most commonly used method– Front-loading– Howard Dean Scream (2004)

Caucuses– Historically, state and party

leaders met and chose nominee

– Very few states use caucuses– Iowa’s caucus is the first

major electoral event usually determining the presidential candidate for each party

Presidential ElectionNominating Conventions

Political parties hold national nominating convention attended by state delegates

Choose presidential nominee, vice-presidential nominee, party platform, unify party

Democratic Party and Republican Party do not use the same system of choosing a nominee…

Republican National Convention

Nominee is chosen when a candidate receives a majority of the total delegates

Unofficially determined by results of presidential primaries

In 2012, the Republican nominee required 1,144 out of 2,286

Democratic National Convention

Nominee is chosen when a candidate receives a majority of the total delegates

State primary results determine candidate pledges

“Superdelegates,” not obligated by state results and chosen based on political status, can determine party nominee

In 2012, the Democratic nominee required 2,777 out of 5,556

Presidential/Congressional ElectionCampaigning

Position Issues– Issue which divides voters and candidates have opposing

views– Examples:

Abortion: pro-choice or pro-life Marriage: man/woman or heterosexual/homosexual

Valence Issues– Universally shared views and voters determine which

candidate is more likely to address/solve– Campaigns have recently concentrated more on valence

issues– Examples:

Low unemployment Low crime

Presidential/Congressional ElectionCampaigning

Television– Paid advertisement - spots– News broadcasts - visuals

Debates– Televised or town hall– Gain exposure, usually for

lesser-knowns– Could lead to showcase flaws

Rick Perry Gaffe

Direct Mail/Internet– Lists used to direct specific

issue-based ads to specific demographics

– Useful to earn campaign fundsNixon - Kennedy Debate1960

1988 Presidential Campaign

Vice President George Bush (R) vs. Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis (D)

Read My Lips Tank Ad Willie Horton Ad

Campaign FinanceCongressional and Presidential

“Money is the mother’s milk of politics.” - Jesse Unruh (D)

Sources of Campaign Money Campaign Finance Rules Campaign Finance Reform Effect of Campaign Finance

Sources of Campaign Money

Private individuals are primary sources– Federal government matches individual contributions to

presidential candidates Congressional candidates receive no federal funds

Political Action Committees (PACS) secondary source

Hard money– Financial contribution directly given to candidate

Soft money– Financial contribution given to political party as a whole

Campaign Finance Reform

Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 (FECA) and 1974 Amendments– Required disclosure of donors– Limits on individual contributions– Established Federal Election Commission (FEC)

Buckley v. Valeo (1976)– Constitutional:

Limits on individual contributions Disclosure of contributions

– Unconstitutional: Limits on campaign expenditures

Campaign Finance Reform Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA)/ McCain-

Feingold Act– Banned soft money to national parties– Restricted PAC campaign ads

527 organization– Non-profit, tax-exempt political committee may not campaign directly for

candidate or political party– May address issue or character of a candidate– Publicly disclose finances and donors– Ex. Swift Boat Veterans, MoveOn.org

Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010)– Overturned restriction on corporation and union contributions allowing

unlimited financial support for campaign support ads– Ruled unconstitutional based on First Amendment freedom of speech

Campaign Finance Limits  To each candidate

or candidate committee per election

To national party committee per calendar year

To state, district & local party committee per calendar year

To any other political committee per calendar year

Special Limits

Individualmay give

$2,600* $32,400* $10,000(combined limit)

$5,000 $123,200* overall biennial limit:•$48,600* to all candidates•$74,600* to all PACs and parties

National Party Committeemay give

$5,000 No limit No limit $5,000 $45,400* to Senate candidate per campaign

State, District & LocalParty Committeemay give

$5,000(combined limit)

No limit No limit $5,000(combined limit)

No limit

PAC(multicandidate)may give

$5,000 $15,000 $5,000(combined limit)

$5,000 No limit

PAC(not multicandidate)may give

$2,600* $32,400* $10,000(combined limit)

$5,000 No limit

Authorized Campaign Committee may give

$2,000 No limit No limit $5,000 No limit

Presidential ElectionGeneral Election

Electoral College– Majority of electoral votes - 270– Winner-Take-All

Nebraska and Maine*

Campaign in Electoral-rich states– Top 11 states would give a candidate 270 electoral votes

http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_predictions.php?mapid=bDDz

– California (55), Texas (38), New York (29), Florida (29), Illinois (20), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), New Jersey (14)

– Swing States Florida in 2000 Election Ohio in 2004 Election

2000 Election - Gore/Bush

2004 Election - Bush/Kerry

2008 Election - Obama/McCain

Electoral Map (2012)

2012 Electoral Map by District

Results of Elections Maintaining Election

– Majority party/power maintains power and traditional voter loyalties

Deviating Election– Minority power wins with support of new voters, but voters

maintain traditional loyalties– Usually temporary due to current issues or events

Critical/Realigning Election– Minority power wins majority with new voter coalition and

maintains subsequent power– Occurs due to serious or extreme conditions and events

Dealigning Election– Voters less dependent on partisan loyalties– Split-ticket voting

Realigning/Critical Election

1920s dominated by Republicans in Congress and White House

Great Depression hits in 1929 1932 Election

– Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) establishes new Democratic coalition of blacks, farmers, southerners, Catholics, Jews, unions, and urbanites

– Democrats win landslide victories and majorities in White House and Congress