PUBLIC OPINION AND POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION

PUBLIC OPINION AND POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION

Public opinion the aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of the adult populationExtremely dynamic; shaped by and shapes groupsThe private becomes publicDistribution of OpinionConsensus : general agreement among the peopleDivisive Opinion: Public opinion that is polarized between two positions

What is Public Opinion?Shaping OpinionPolitical Socialization - The process in which individuals acquire political beliefs and valuesMajor Agents of SocializationFamilySchoolPeersMedia (opinion leaders)

The Family and EducationFamily: Most important agent of socializationFamilies have similar political viewsUsually hold same party affiliation as parentsInfluence of adult children in 2008 electionSchool: pass on American political valuesSignificant formal influenceIntentional via curriculumUnintentional via teacher behavior and attitude

Peer groups and MediaPeer Groups: increases in influence with ageMay stem from group participation in the politicalOften indirect; shapes how to behave in relationships, transmission of social behaviorMedia: Communicates the issuesOften most common connection to opinion leaders Agenda Setting

Other FactorsPolitical EventsLifestyle effect: Certain attitudes at certain agesBeing a teenager vs. being a parentGenerational effect: event that has lasting impactWatergate and 9/11Religion predicts party affiliation and voting behavior Social Status TheoryCatholics & Jews Associated with the Democratic Party because used to be poor and therefore democratic.Religious Tradition Theory: The moral teachings guides party affiliation.Jews Social justiceProtestants Personal salvationOther FactorsIdentity PoliticsSocio-Economic StatusRace and EthnicityGenderRegionElection specific-factorsParty IdentificationPerception of the CandidatesIssue Preferences

Voting Behavior

Voting Behavior

Opinion PollingHow We Form Political OpinionsPolitical OpinionsPersonalBeliefsPoliticalKnowledgeCuesFromLeadersOpinion PollsPolls are interviews or surveys of a sample of citizens used to estimate how the public feels about an issue or set of issues.Early Efforts to Influence and Measure Public OpinionPublic opinion polling as we know it today developed in the 1930s.As early as 1824, newspapers have tried to predict election winners using polls.Literary Digest used straw polls that are now seen as highly problematic.The American Voter (1960) continues to influence the way we think of mass attitudes and behavior. studied the 1952 & 1956 elections; discussed how class coalitions led to party affiliation.How We Measure Public OpinionIn order for a poll to be reliable, it must have:Proper question wording (validity)An accurate sample (reliability)contacting respondents Since 95% of Americans have phones, random phone calling would be a valid method.Problem: Cell phonesSampling TechniquesRepresentative Sampling - To accurately predict the whole based on only a sample, the sample must be representative.Sample of interviewees should reflect population as a wholeRandomness - A purely random sample will be representative within the stated margin of error. every person in the defined population has to have an equal chance of being selectedThe larger the sample of the population, the smaller the margin of errorquota sampling: researchers decide how many persons of certain types they need in the survey: ex. minorities, women, or farmers Within the categories, the sample may be nonrandom and therefore biased.The Importance of Accuracy - interview about 1500 individuals to measure sentiment of 200 million American adultsTheir results have a high probability of being correctwithin a margin of three percentage pointsand they have had some notable successes in accurately predicting election results.

Problems with PollsSampling Errors: the difference between a samples results and the true result if the entire population had been interviewed. The sample is too small Do not know how to correct for common biases in samples.Poll Questions: The design of a question can affect the result. Yes/no answers are a problem if the issue admits to shades of grayOften, people will attempt to please the interviewerPush Polls: attempts to spread negative statements about a candidate by posing as a pollster and using long questions containing information about the oppositionBoth candidates and advocacy groups use push polls.

In general, do not trust a poll that does not tell you the question wording, the sampling method, and the ways in which respondents were contacted.Reputable pollsters will also tell you the number of respondents (the 'n') and the error rate (+ or - 5%).Any poll that tells you to call 555-5554 for yes and 555-5555 for no is unscientific and unreliable. This is not a random sample at all!How We Measure Public OpinionTypes of PollsTracking polls--continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise and fall in popularity. These may be a decent measure of trends.Exit polls--polls conducted at polling places on election day.Deliberative polls--a new kind of poll first tried in 1996. A relatively large scientific sample of Americans (600) were selected for intensive briefings, discussions, and presentations about issue clusters including foreign affairs, the family, and the economy. A deliberative poll attempts to measure what the public would think if they had better opportunities to thoughtfully consider the issues first.