PUBLIC OPINIONPublic opinion is the aggregate of

individual

attitudes or beliefs.

Public opinion can also be defined as the

complex collection of opinions of many

different people and the sum of all their views,

or as a single opinion held by an individual

about a social or political topic.

U.S. CONSTITUTION

A

rticle I : U.S. House members elected every 2 years;

A

mendment #1 – Free Speech/Press

A

mendment 17 – Direct Election of U.S. Senators

JOHN STUART MILL

“

On Liberty”

- Elected Officials only owe their constituents when

voting and shaping policy:

THEIR BEST JUDGEMENT!!!

Don’t follow majority; people are fickle!

PUBLIC OPINION - SCIENCE

P

ublic Opinion can be measured. It is “empirical” because it can be quantified.

- Public opinion polls in the United States appear to have become as

American as apple pie, Coca-Cola, baseball, and our flag. Generally based

on a set of interviews and/or written questions, polls are used to

determine/predict ...

W

hat people believe;

H

ow they feel about something; or

I

n what way they will act.

-Polls (George Gallup); Surveys; etc.

OPINION POLL

A

ny poll must have an Opinion Poll:

METHODOLOGY!

(the way by how which they come to their results – the who, what,

where, and why of a poll)

G

eorge Gallup- in 1947, he pioneered survey sampling techniques

and inventor of the Gallup poll, a successful statistical method of

survey sampling for measuring public opinion

OPINION METHODOLOGY

S

AMPLE FRAME - is the source material or device from

which a sample is drawn.

It is a list of all those within a population who can be

sampled, and may include individuals, households or

institutions

- What is being asked!!!

SAMPLING/SAMPLE FRAME

O

ne of the best ways to achieve unbiased results in a study is through random sampling.

RANDOM SAMPLING!!

R

andom sampling includes choosing subjects from a population through unpredictable means. In its

simplest form, subjects all have an equal chance of being selected out of the population being researched.

i.e. every 4th voter.

POPULATION/FRAME

W

ho Was Interviewed?

- Under What Conditions Were The Interviews Conducted.

W

hen Was the Poll Conducted?

-Who Conducted the Poll?

- How were the questions asked (survey, web, face-to-face, etc)

Types of Question: Open or Closed-Ended?

MARGIN OF ERRORP

olling organizations indicate what the potential for error

of their poll is.

Based on the size of their sample it is statistically

possible to do sod indicates reliability to the reader.

Usually in politics: +/- 3% to 4%

Sports/Entertainment: +/- 1 to 2%

Why the difference?

HALO EFFECT

R

espondents also tend to provide socially respectable answers. Make

them feel good; not rude or ignorant.

It is a cognitive bias by which one's judgments of a person’s character

can be influenced by one's overall impression of him or her.

A

pathy and ignorance.

Questions??

POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION

W

hy do you like politics?

Go to political meetings?

K

eep up with current events?

R

epublican? Democratic/ Independent?

Like or dislike Obama?

P

henomenon:

POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION

P

olitical socialization is a lifelong process by which people

form their ideas about politics and acquire political values.

- The “study of the developmental processes by which

children and adolescents acquire political cognition,

attitudes, and behaviors.

AGENTS OF POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION

1

. Family - Most important shaper of basic attitudes Teaches

basic political values & loyalty to particular political party

and other elements of civic engagement

2

. Schools – Teach patriotism and American mythology Early

grades build on and reinforce positive learning.

Liberal or conservative?

3

. Peers – Limited in effect because of self-selection Peer

group in youth affects mostly “lifestyle issues.” Can make a

difference at college level!!

AGENTS “CONT”

4

. Mass Media – Effect difficult to measure but substantial

Promotes cynicism about government Agenda Setting :

- Telling us what to think about Framing

– Tells us what to think about what is presented

5

. Political leaders and institutions.

-Relationships with them

AGENTS “CONT”

6

. Churches and Religion Religious right and religious left;

7. Community; Region; Race; Sexual Orientation; Gender;

Class; etc.

8. Cyber-World (tweeter; facebook; access from smart

phones; etc

WHAT ARE YOU???

L

iberal?

Conservative?

What????

How do you feel about the political system and your American

Government??

P

lay a GAME!!!! – The Caiazzo Political Game!!

CAIAZZO POLITICAL GAMEG

ame Theory

10 Political Questions with the “C” and “L” stance.

1. Abortion; 2. Gay Right; 3. Gun Control; 4. Capital

Punishment; 5. Euthanasia; 6. Legalization of

Marijuana; 7) Religion in School; 8) Animal Rights;

9. Sex Education in School; and, 10) Immigration.

What are you??

END!

Q

uestions???

N

ext session: the MASS MEDIA!!!