Public Opinion and Political Action

Chapter 6

Introduction

Some Basics: Demography

The science of population changes.

Gender Occupation Race Religion SES - social class

America’s Demographics: Who are we and how do we know?

Census A valuable tool for understanding population changes-

required every 10 years. 2010 Census (1:35): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf1f2MhKLmg

Immigrant Society and the Melting Pot ideal First wave -- NW Europeans 2nd wave - Eastern Europeans 3rd Wave - Hispanics + Asians Minority/majority is influencing the great melting pot.

By 2050 - Whites will be only 52% of society At one time Blacks were the largest “reluctant”

minority. Now w/ affirmative action, they are moving up.

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The American People

Figure 6.1

The American PeoplePolitical Culture: An overall set of values widely shared within a society.

Simpson/Mazzoli Act requires employers to document the citizenship of employees or face fines.

Asian influx has brought an educated elite into America. . .the typical downtrodden immigrant now is highly educated

Even with gambling, Native Americans maintain a dismal ranking in acquiring the American dream.

Which party will benefit from the minority/majority?

The American People: The Regional Shift

Demographics has also changed with the MOBILE society

Frost Belt to Sun Belt: SW, SE and Texas dramatic population increases (20% growth rates) while North has 5% growth

Reapportionment The process of

reallocating seats in the House of Representatives (435) every 10 years on the basis of the results of the census.

Redistricting is done by state legislatures.

The Graying of America

GRAY POWER Baby boomers graying rapidly

(fastest growing group) + They wish to collect their $5

trillion in Social Security benefits! Potential drain by 2020

Their SIGS possess clout – i.e. AARP

One advantage that no other group has- we are all going to get older

How Americans Learn About Politics: Political Socialization

Political Socialization:the process through which an individual acquires his or her political orientation

The Process of Political SocializationHow it is developed?Who establishes our political values?

HOW is political socialization developed?

Weight of tradition + customs Impact of events Changes in the way of

political elites Families School Relationships (as the

paradigms shift)

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WHO establishes our political value system. . .Who sets the agenda?

Single Interest Groups (SIGS)

Political institutions Media “The New Parent” Family Social Economic

Stratification (SES) as one grows older.

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Family.

Strongest. Time & emotional commitment

Political leanings of children often mirror their parent’s leanings

Fairly equal influence of mother and father.

When parents differ, child tends to associate w/beliefs of parent with whom he/she more closely identifies.

Family Influence

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/04/110407121337.htm

Mass Media TV displaces parents as chief

source of info. Generation gap in TV news

viewing and newspaper reading

Schools

Impart basic values civic duty, patriotism. Used by government to socialize the young into the culture and government

High school government classes apparently do not change political orientation of students.

College students tend to be more liberal than general population. College students at most prestigious schools tend to be the most

liberal. College students in social sciences more liberal than those in

natural/physical sciences.

Other Sources of Influence Religion

Protestant, Catholic, Jewish Race

White, Black, Hispanic (Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban)

Income Gender

The Gender Gap Women vote for the Democratic

candidates at higher rates than Republican candidates.

Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information

5 ways to measure public opinion Elections (useful but not 100% accurate) Interest Groups (Useful to use) Media (Only the vocal are heard) Straw Poll (Very unreliable) Scientific Polling (Most reliable if 5 steps are

followed- developed by Gallop) Nate Silver’s method- a poll of polls- is the MOST

accurate scientific polling method

Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information

5 Steps in Scientific Polling1. Define the universe

Entire population the poll will measure (women, men, children, whites, blacks, etc.)

2. Construct the Sample (See next slide)

3. Develop valid and unbiased questions Must be very specific and non-leading

4. Control how the poll is conducted Phone (usually best way to get honest answers), e-mail, face-to-face

(careful that the interviewer doesn’t influence the answers

5. Analyze and report the findings (See the two slides after the next on sampling)

Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information How Sample Sizes Can Be

Constructed

-Random Sampling: The key technique employed by sophisticated survey researchers; operates on the principle that everyone should have an equal probability of being selected for the sample-Representative Sample: Draws from all groups-Sample size 1500-Sampling Error: The level of confidence in the findings of a public opinion poll, +/-3% (will be accurate 95% of the time if the 5 steps are followed)

Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information

Analyzing the Results: How Polls Influence Government (The Good Part)

Help candidates and politicians figure out public preferences.

Inform the public about issues. Exit Polls- used by the media to

predict election day winners so we don’t have to wait!

Polls reflect the policy agenda—problems the people inside and outside of government believe must be addressed.

Politicians use polls to help get themselves reelected and do what their constituents want

Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information

Analyzing the Results: How Polls Don’t Influence Government (The Bad Part) Politicians don’t want to be seen as indecisive (only votes

for what the polls say, not for what he/she knows or believes in)

If the opinion poll goes against what the party wants, politicians won’t vote for what the public wants for fear of losing support of party leadership

Or politicians won’t vote for what the public wants to GAIN support of party leadership (he/she did want the leadership wanted, not public)

Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information

Analyzing the Results: What Polls Reveal About Americans’ Political Information (The Bad Part)

Americans don’t know much about politics.

Americans may know their basic beliefs, but not how that affects policies of the government.

The Decline of Trust in Government

Now only about 25% of the public trust the government most of the time or always.

What Americans Value: Political Ideologies

Political Ideology: A coherent set of beliefs

about politics, public policy, and public purpose.

Demographics and Ideology The Republican Party Coalition

Rural voters/farmers White males Business owners Conservative Christians College Educated

Demographics and Ideology Democratic Coalition Urban dwellers Union members Hispanics and African Americans High School Diploma Advanced Degree

Demographics and Voter Turnout

The following increase the chance that someone will vote: Higher income Older Well educated White (sort of) Northerner Union member Government employee

Liberalism

Classical liberalism of 18th century -- limited role of government. Govt. seen as chief threat to liberty. “That govt. is best which governs least.”

Modern liberalism of 20th century -- expanded role of government. Corporations seen as chief threat ---> need for a strong central govt. to “smooth out the rough edges of capitalism.”

Strong influence of liberalism, 1930's - 1970's.

Discrediting of liberalism in 1980's and 1990's: a feeling that liberalism had 'gone too far.' Need to get back to more individualism and less reliance on big govt.

“Neoliberals.” Less likely to rely upon govt as solution to

problems. Govt. certainly has some role to play, but not as big

a role as desired by New Deal liberals. Rise of Democratic Leadership Council,

w/members like Bill Clinton and Paul Tsongas.

Conservatism

Essentially classical liberalism. Resurgence in late 70's and 80's: Reagan/Bush,

Repub. control of Senate 1980-86. Emphasis today on the private sector to solve

problems. "Neoconservatives” and the New Right: impact

upon social, economic, and foreign policy.

What Americans Value: Political Ideologies. A few examples:

Liberals: More domestic

spending Pro-choice Favor affirmative

action Favor progressive

taxation Pro gay marriage

Conservatives: More military

spending Pro-life Oppose affirmative

action Keep taxes low Support traditional

marriage

The Other Ideologues

Environmentalism – Grassroots democracy, social justice, non-violence. In a post-materialistic world, many seek to replenish the environment before it wears out. The post-materialistic world. . .

Socialism – Public ownership of means of production and exchange. A left wing perspective. Market economy w/ gov’t involvement. . .Most European democracies use this approach. High taxes but “Nat’l” benefits.

Libertarianism – Individual liberty + sharply limited gov’t; isolationist; repeal all morality laws. “Get Gov’t out of your lives”. A Nevada favorite

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How Americans Participate in Politics

Political Participation: All the activities used by

citizens to influence the selection of political leaders or the policies they pursue.

Conventional Participation Voting in elections Working in campaigns /

running for office Contacting elected officials

How Americans Participate in Politics

Protest as Participation Protest: A form of political

participation designed to achieve policy changes through dramatic and unconventional tactics.

Civil disobedience: A form of political participation that reflects a conscious decision to break a law believed to be immoral and to suffer the consequences.

How Americans Participate in Politics Class, Inequality, and Participation

Figure 6.5