Clara Y. Yatini

National Institute of Aeronautics and Space

(LAPAN)

Indonesia

Introduction

Goals and Strategy

Research

Observation

Education and Public Outreach

Scope

Relevance to the Nation

Space Weather

Refers to condition on the Sun and in the solar wind,

magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere that can influence

the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-

based technological system

Changes in the radiative output from the Sun directly affect

the state of the upper atmosphere and ionosphere through the

excitation and ionization of atoms and molecules

The solar wind moves outward from the Sun and impinges on

Earth. Substorms are relatively short-lived magnetosphere

response to aolar wind. Geomagnetic storms are sustained,

long-lived response to a prolonged period of solar wind flow

Most magnetospheric processes are manifested in some way by

changes in the properties of ionosphere and thermosphere

(electrical currents, auroral emission, scintillation, etc.)

Radio Communication

HF radio wave communication is still used in isolated area,

search and rescue efforts, and military operations

Navigation system

GPS uses radio waves to calculate location accurately. Errors

in positioning can result when signals is influenced by

ionospheric condition which is affected by space weather.

Satellite system

As a new developer of satellite

Geomagnetic survey and mapping

Power system?

In progress to understand such impact in low latitude region

Capabilities in analyzing space weather and its

impact

Forecasting and warning of space weather and

its impact

Information services

Research and modelling

Observation

Forecasting

Education

Solar Activity

Space Environment

Geo and Space Magnetism

Ionosphere (including satellite and terrestrial

communication)

SOLAR ACTIVITY

RESEARCH

SPACE ENVIRONMENT Solar

system

Dynamics

• Satellite perturbation

• Information on space debris

RESEARCH ON

REGIONAL MAGNETIC

FIELD

RESEARCH ON

REGIONAL

IONOSPHERE

RESEARCH ON

EQUATORIAL UPPER

ATMOSFER

• Information on

terrestrial magnetic

activity

PROGRAMME INTEGRATION

• Solar activity prediction

• Prediction of the impact of solar activity, etc

• Communication frequency prediction

• Ionospheric correction for position determination

• Information on communication disturbance

• Information on global atmospheric circulation

• Information on prediction of global

atmospheric change

• Solar activity prediction and the identification of the nature and mechanisms of flares, CMEs, etc.

Solar Flare prediction based on: - sunspot number

- area

- magnetic class

- position on solar hemisphere

to predict the occurence of solar flare (C, M, and X class) in percentage, with accuracy ±75%

• Preliminary model and the prediction of the impact of solar activity to the Earth (Sun-Earth connection), including the impact on ionosphere, geomagnetic field and climate parameters

CME/flare position – major geomagnetic

storm

-40

-30

-20

-10

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-90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Latitu

de

Longitude

Optical

Sunspot and flare observation

Radio

Solar radio bursts

SOLAR RADIO SPECTROGRAPH - SN 4000

RADIO SPECTRUM : 18 MHz – 1.8 GHz

OPERATING NOW: 56 MHz – 1.8 GHz

Solar Radio Burst;

- velocity from solar spectra

- precursor of geomagnetic storm, travel time

Type II Radio

Burst on

June 13,

2010

V = 700

km/s

Type III radio burst

Shows the

movement of

energetic

electron after

flare

1

10

100

7:00 7:05 7:10 7:15 7:20 7:25 7:30 7:35 7:40 7:45 7:50

FLU

KS X R

AY

(x10-7

W/m

2)

PUKUL (UT)

Type III solar radio burst, Feb 12,

2010

X-ray flux

Satellite’s anomaly due to energetic particles

Satelit FUSE (1) (25 November 2001)

Distribution of electron E> 30 keV Distribution of proton: 80 < E < 240 keV

(N. Ahmad, et al)

Satellite’s anomaly due to geomagnetic activity Aktivitas Geomagnet Tahun 1998

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Waktu (Jam)

Ind

eks K

p*1

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GFO Galaxy 4

GOES 9

Gambar 3-7 : Kejadian anomali beberapa satelit tahun 1998

Aktivitas Geomagnet Tahun 2000

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IMAGE Galaxy 8

Gambar 3-9 : Kejadian anomali beberapa satelit tahun 2000

1990 – 2001

58% of

satellite

anomalies

related with

geomagnetic

storm

(N. Ahmad, et al)

Most anomalies are caused by space weather through

the interaction of high energetic particles on

satellite system and the effects of geomagnetic

activity especially when the storm events.

SIAS:

As a tool of early warning system for satellite

operation by using

- energy and flux of energetic proton and electron

- Kp indices

Gambar 3-6 : Tampilan sub menu utama A (parameter cuaca antariksa)

Gambar 3-7 : Tampilan sub menu indeks Kp (N. Ahmad, et al)

Sejak 1 jam yang lalu hingga 1 jam ke depan sebanyak 1 benda antariksa melintasi Indonesia dengan ketinggian kurang dari 200 km. Pada umumnya suatu benda dikatakan

jatuh jika ketinggiannya mencapai 122 km. Last update: 2011-06-01 08:06:51 WIB

http://orbit.dirgantara-

lapan.or.id

Research on magnetic pulses as the precursor

of geomagnetic storm/substorm

Modelling on variation of diurnal regional

magnetic disturbances

Study on earthquake precursor using some

methods (WTMM, Flicker Noise Spectroscopy,

Polarization, Box Counting, etc)

Study of the relation of geomagnetic storm

with Geomagnetic Induced Current (GIC)

- Identification of magnetic pulse, characteristics and occurence

- Real time monitoring of magnetic storm and magnetospheric substorm using ground-based magnetometer

- To predict the occurence of geomagnetic storm/substorm

Pi2 extraction

Solar wind and pc3

pc3

pc5

Modelling on variation of diurnal regional magnetic

disturbances

Daily variation of geomagnetic H component observed from

Manado observatory on 1 – 5 August (left) with the quiet day plot,

and the geomagnetic disturbance (right). The arrow in right figure

shows the start time of the disturbance

(M. Ruhimat et al)

Some anomalies are appeared before the Aceh earthquake

on Dec 26, 2004 by analyzing the ULF signal

STUDY ON EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR

Using some methods: polarization, transfer function, fractal before the

Nias (mar 28, 2005) and Aceh (December 26, 2004) earthquakes

(S. Saroso, et al)

LOCATION :

• BIAK

• PONTIANAK

• TANJUNGSARI

• KOTOTABANG

• PARE-PARE

• KUPANG

• MENADO

-COLLABORATION with Kyushu univ

(MAGDAS) and Nagoya univ.

• RESOLUTION 1 SEC

• NEAR REAL TIME

OBJECT

OBSERVATION

• Magnetic field

component : D, H, Z

• Pi 2, Pi 3

• Pc 3, Pc 4, Pc 5

FLUXGATE MAGNETOMETER

Regional Ionospheric Research:

Ionospheric dynamics and its impact to

- Terrestrial communication

- Satelitte comunication

- Navigation; satellite-based position determination

1. Models to predict the condition of the ionosphere

2. Software for predicting the condition of ionosphere .

3. Information for mitigation of ionospheric dynamics

Ionosphere:

T indices, E/F/Es layers, spread F, TEC, scintillation, mapping, radio communication (frequency, fading, etc),

IPS -5, Pameungpeuk, Menado

IPS – 71,Sumedang

CADI, Biak, Pontianak

FMCW (NICT, Japan), Kototabang

Hasil runing model GISM

Hasil plot Model TEC

Hasil plot Model Indek sintilasi S4

OBSERVATION AND STUDY OF EQUATORIAL MIDDLE AND UPPER

ATMOSPHERE

ANTENNA EAR

SPD KOTOTABANG

ANTENNA MF RADAR

SPD PONTIANAK

Observations of middle and upper Atmosphere

dynamics at Pontianak dan Kototabang

Airglow observations at

Kototabang

BIAK:

Ionosonda,

Magnetometer,

WPR, BLR, Medac

Rencana: Ozon, Ion

Oblique, Track

Satelit, ISM,

MANADO :

Ionosonda, TEC

Rencana : Magnetometer, Kom. Dat, ISM,

KUPANG : Ionosonda, AWS,

Magnetometer,

Rencana : KomDat,

TEC, Ion Oblique

KOTOTABANG:

EAR, Cuaca, RASound, MWR, Airglow, Ceilometer, ComSys, AWS, ORG, IOnosonda

Rencana : ISM, TECmeter, Magnetometer, Ionosonda, VHF RadarSystem , Kom Data,

TANJUNGSARI : Teleskop, Ionosonda, Radio Spektrograf, TEC meter, AWS, Airglow Monitor

Rencana : H-alpha, Ionsonda Oblique, Sistem Komdat ISM, F.P. Interfer. PAMEUNGPEUK:

Ionosonda, Meteo, MF Radar

Rencana : Magnetometer, Alat Uji Kom, Sistem Komdata, Teleskop Optik, MWR,

WATUKOSEK:

BREWER Spectr, Ozon, Meteo,Telescope Matahari

Rencana : Magnetometer, Alat uji kom, Komdat,

INSTRUMENTATION NETWORK

SOLAR, SPACE DYNAMICS, DAN ATMOSPHERE OBSERVATION

Observation and Information of Space Weather.

Needs:

- Real time solar data

- Real time space-based solar and interplanetary data

- Knowledge in predicting the solar activity

- Knowledge in predicting the space weather and its impact

Collaboration between researchers, and technical training (Sun and Sun-Earth connection)

INFORMATION AND SERVICES

RADIO FREQUENCY COMMUNICATION PREDICTION:

ROUTINE :

QUARTERLY PREDICTION : -- REGIONAL GOVERNMENT

(REGENCY etc)

MONTHLY PREDICTION : MILITARY , POLICE

WEBSITE : http://bdg.lapan.go.id/

• SOLAR ACTIVITY ( SUNSPOT, FLARE)

• IONOSPHERIC PARAMETERS ( FoF2 , HF2, etc)

• GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY (Pi, Pc)

• METEORITES AND SPACE DEBRIS

• FREQUENCY PREDICTION FOR RADIO COMMUNICATION

Public Outreach: Space Weather Seminar, Public Speaking, Training,

Bulletin (Quarterly), Open House, Stargazing

Application and Dissemination 1. Information service for prediction of communication

frequency

2. Information of real time ionogram.

Monitoring Ionogram Real Time (MIRT) system

Automatic Position Reporting System (APRS).

Information of real time canal evaluation.

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NS

I (M

Hz)

LUF

OWF

MUF

+

3. Training on Radio Frequency Management and Radio

Communication Technique

4. Technical Assistance.

Jayapura, 22-24 September 2010

Tingkat Kabupaten Kupang

11-15 Juli 2011

Space Mindedness

Dissemination

ISWI and MAGDAS School 2012

Bandung 17 – 26 September 2012

Organizers:

- NASA

- Space Environment Research Center (SERC)

- National Institute of Aeronautics and Space

of Indonesia (LAPAN)