• Bentham• Utilitarianism• Public opinion should lead to a government

that rules in a way that brings the greatest happiness to the greatest number

• Difficulty in defining public opinion• Does “public” really have an opinion?• Are we actively interested?

• Politically relevant opinions held by ordinary citizens that they express openly

The Definition

• People have conflicting opinions

• Sometimes our opinions conflict with reality

• So do we have to be informed to have a reasonable opinion?

Struggles with Public Opinion

• Polls are the most basic• Use a sample to measure attitudes of a population

• Laws of probability

• Marbles

• Must have random selection based on probability samples

• Size of sample matters…not size of population

• Sampling error

• 1,000 individuals in sample has sampling error of +/- 3 percent

• Problems with polls• Hard to have a population

• We don’t all have phones, for example

• Nonopinions

• Social desirability bias

• Interviewer effects

How Do We Measure It?

• Process by which we acquire political opinions, beliefs, and values

• Occurs throughout life but most impacted by childhood learning

• Effect is cumulative

• Agents:• Family• Schools• Media• Peers• Leaders and Institutions• Churches

Political Socialization

• Cultural

• Ideological• Conservative, liberal, libertarian, populist• Divided between economic and social

policies

• Group• Religion, class, region, race/ethnicity, gender,

age• But there are crosscutting cleavages at times

• Party identification

How We Think Politically

• Some say that politicians are insensitive...others find the opposite effect

• Certain issues have their own effects• i.e. Social Security

• Some issues are too divisive to be satisfied

• The question of whether government cares enough about public opinion is normative

But Does it Influence Policy?

• Patterson Chapter 7

• Connell: What are the basics Connell says a website needs? His article was from 1998…what is he missing that we know about in 2010?

• Maor: What does the Maor article teach us about handling campaign speeches? What do you find interesting? Surprising?

For Tuesday