DTENTE ON STANDBY THE SECOND COLD WAR, NEW ARMS RACE, THE REAGAN DOCTRINE AND FIRST STEPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE COLD WAR ANDRS JO PhD CORVINUS 2015

DÉTENTE ON STANDBYTHE SECOND COLD WAR, NEW ARMS RACE, THE REAGAN DOCTRINE AND FIRST STEPS TOWARDS

THE END OF THE COLD WAR

ANDRÁS JOÓ PhDCORVINUS 2015

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991

AIMS OF THE REAGAN ADMINISTRATION

• REAGAN ADMINISTRATION WAS AWARE OF THE FRAGILE STATE OF THE USSR

• HARDLINE POLICY TO PUSH ITS ENEMY TOWARD COLLAPSE?• UNPRECEDENTED MILITARY BUILDUP• THE INTRODUCTION OF THE STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE

(SDI)• TOUGH RHETORIC

HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A. JOÓ

THE SECOND COLD WAR

• RONALD REAGAN DENOUNCED THE SOVIET UNION AS AN IMMORAL “EVIL EMPIRE”• HEIGHTENED THE COLD WAR TENSIONS

• APPROVED MASSIVE INCREASE IN MILITARY SPENDING• ENDED ARMS CONTROL NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE SOVIETS • PURSUED AGGRESSIVE POLICY TO ROLL BACK SOVIET

INFLUENCE IN THE THIRD WORLD


THE SECOND COLD WAR AND REAGAN’S AIMS

• REAGAN MOVED AGAINST DÉTENTE AND BEYOND CONTAINMENT

• THE OBJECTIVE OF ENCOURAGING LONG-TERM POLITICAL AND MILITARY CHANGES WITHIN THE SOVIET EMPIRE

• FACILITATE A MORE SECURE AND PEACEFUL WORLD ORDER• ADVOCATED A NEW AGGRESSIVE POLICY


THE SECOND COLD WAR AND REAGAN’S AIMS

• A CENTRAL INSTRUMENT FOR PUTTING PRESSURE ON THE SOVIET UNION WAS REAGAN’S MASSIVE DEFENSE BUILD-UP

• RAISED DEFENSE SPENDING FROM $134 BILLION IN 1980 TO $253 BILLION IN 1989

• RAISED AMERICAN DEFENSE SPENDING TO 7 PERCENT OF GDP• DRAMATICAL INCREASE OF THE FEDERAL DEFICIT


THE SECOND COLD WAR• THE “SECOND COLD WAR” PROVED SHORT-LIVED

• THE SOVIET UNION BEGAN TO PURSUE POLICIES AIMED AT IMPROVING RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES AFTER MIKHAIL GORBACHEV CAME TO POWER IN 1985•WITH THE SOVIETS MAKING MOST OF THE CONCESSIONS,

THE UNITED STATES AND THE SOVIET UNION REACHED IMPORTANT ARMS CONTROL AGREEMENTS IN 1987 AND AFTER • AT THE END OF REAGAN’S TERM COMMUNISM IN

EASTERN EUROPE COLLAPSED


THE NEW COLD WAR - A STAR WAR? - SDI• THE REAGAN ADMINISTRATION

INTENSIFIED THE MILITARY BUILD-UP AND INCREASED MILITARY SPENDING ENORMOUSLY

• MARCH 1983: THE SPACE DEFENSE INITIATIVE (SDI), KNOWN AS STAR WARS

• VISIONARY PROJECT TO CREATE AN ANTI-MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM THAT WOULD REMOVE THE NUCLEAR SWORD OF DAMOCLES FROM AMERICA’S HOMELAND

• EXPERTS STILL DISAGREE ABOUT THE LONG-TERM FEASIBILITY


THE SDI WAS INTENDED TO DEFEND THE UNITED STATES FROM ATTACK FROM SOVIET ICBMS BY INTERCEPTING THE MISSILES AT VARIOUS PHASES OF THEIR FLIGHT

SDI WOULD REQUIRE EXTREMELY ADVANCED TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

SYSTEM WOULD TIP THE NUCLEAR BALANCE TOWARD THE US


REAGAN’S AIMS

• RE-ESTABLISH US MILITARY SUPERIORITY• USE THE ARMS RACE TO PLACE GREAT STRAIN ON

THE SOVIET ECONOMY• INCREASE US STRENGTH BEFORE ENGAGING IN

ARMS CONTROL NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE SOVIET UNION• NEGOTIATIONS ON STRATEGIC WEAPONS (START)


THE THIRD WORLD• REAGAN FOLLOWED A CONFRONTATIONAL POLICY TOWARD THIRD

WORLD REGIMES HE DEEMED HOSTILE AND INCREASED MILITARY AND OTHER ASSISTANCE TO PRO-US THIRD WORLD REGIMES

• EL SALVADOR• NICARAGUA• GRENADA• AFGHANISTAN• ANGOLA• CAMBODIA


THE REAGAN DOCTRINE • THE DOCTRINE PROPOSED U.S. ASSISTANCE FOR

ANTICOMMUNIST FORCES WHO CHALLENGED THE SOVIET UNION OR ITS CLIENTS

• REAGAN LAUDED ’FREEDOM FIGHTERS’• USE OF PROXIES AND SMALL PARAMILITARY UNITS• US BACKED MUJAHIDEEN GUERRILLA FIGHTERS • IN AFGHANISTAN THE KREMLIN EXPERIENCED A VIETNAM-

STYLE QUAGMIRE OF ITS OWN


NICARAGUA• IN NICARAGUA, THE WHITE HOUSE SUPPORTED THE CONTRAS,

WHO WERE FIGHTING AGAINST THE REVOLUTIONARY SOCIALIST SANDINISTA REGIME

• CIA TRAINING FOR CONTRAS • CONSTRUCTION OF MILITARY BASES IN NEIGHBORING HONDURAS• CONGRESS SUSPENDED MILITARY AID TO THE CONTRAS IN 1984,

WHICH PROMPTED REAGAN OFfiCIALS TO EXPLORE COVERT AVENUES OF ASSISTANCE


THE IRAN-CONTRA AFFAIR• LINKAGE OF TWO OTHERWISE VASTLY DIFFERENT FOREIGN

POLICY PROBLEMS• HOW TO SECURE THE RELEASE OF AMERICAN HOSTAGES HELD

BY IRANIAN-BACKED KIDNAPPERS IN LEBANON AND HOW TO SUPPORT THE CONTRA REBELS FIGHTING AGAINST NICARAGUA’S CUBAN-STYLE SANDINISTAS?

• PUBLIC OPTIONS WERE LIMITED– REAGAN HAD RULED OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF NEGOTIATING WITH

HOSTAGE TAKERS, CONGRESS REFUSED TO ALLOW MILITARY AID


THE IRAN-CONTRA AFFAIR• IN AUGUST 1985 REAGAN APPROVED A PLAN TO SELL 500 TOW

ANTITANK MISSILES TO IRAN, VIA THE ISRAELIS, IN EXCHANGE FOR THE RELEASE OF AMERICANS HELD BY TERRORISTS IN LEBANON (REAGAN DENIED IT)

• IN NOVEMBER 1985, THERE WAS A PROPOSAL TO SELL HAWK ANTIAIRCRAFT MISSILES TO IRAN

• OPPOSED TO THE ADMINISTRATION’S STATED POLICY (DISSENT WITHIN US GOV.)

• ILLEGAL UNDER U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL LAWHISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.

JOÓ

THE IRAN-CONTRA AFFAIR

• MISSILES AND SPARE PARTS WERE EXPORTED TO IRAN BY THE END OF 1986

• SECRET FUNNELING OF THE FUNDS FROM THE MISSILE SALES TO SWISS BANK ACCOUNTS OWNED BY THE NICARAGUAN CONTRA REBELS

• A CONGRESSIONAL LAW PASSED IN OCTOBER 1984 SPECIFICALLY FORBADE THE U.S. GOVERNMENT FROM SUPPORTING ANY PARAMILITARY GROUP IN NICARAGUA

• TENS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS• LATER INVESTIGATIONS SUGGESTED NUMEROUS ACCOUNTING

IRREGULARITIES HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.

JOÓ

THE IRAN-CONTRA AFFAIR

• LEBANESE MAGAZINE, ASH-SHIRAA, REVEALED THAT THE AMERICANS HAD BEEN SELLING MISSILES TO THE IRANIANS

• REAGAN RESPONDED WITH A TELEVISED STATEMENT IN WHICH HE DENIED DEAL

• REAGAN APPOINTED AN INDEPENDENT COMMISSION TO INVESTIGATE THE AFFAIR

• LATER COURT CASE, ELEVEN WERE CONVICTED• BUSH PARDONED SIX OTHER PERSONS IMPLICATED IN THE IRAN-

CONTRA SCANDALHISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.

JOÓ

IRAN-IRAQ WAR• SEPTEMBER 1980 – AUGUST 1988• TWO OTHER INCIDENTS INVOLVING THE UNITED STATES• ON 17 MAY 1987, IRAQI AIRCRAFT ATTACKED IN THE PERSIAN

GULF THE U.S. NAVY FRIGATE STARK, EVIDENTLY BY MISTAKE, RESULTING IN 37 U.S. DEAD

• IN THE SECOND, ON 3 JULY 1988, THE CREW OF THE U.S. CRUISER VINCENNES MISTOOK AN IRANIAN AIRLINER FOR AN ATTACKING MILITARY AIRCRAFT


Iran Air Flight 655 was an Iran Air civilian passenger flight from Tehran to Dubai that was shot down by the the United States Navy guided missile cruiser USS Vincennes on 3 July 1988The attack took place in Iranian airspace, over Iran's territorial waters in the Persian Gulf, and on the flight's usual flight pathThe aircraft, an Airbus A300 B2-203, was destroyed by SM-2MR surface-to-air missiles fired from the VincennesAll 290 on board, including 66 children and 16 crew, died. This attack ranks ninth among the deadliest disasters in aviation history


STILL AN IDEOLOGICAL CONFLICT?• THE COLD WAR IS OFTEN PORTRAYED AS A CONFLICT

BETWEEN TWO COMPETING IDEOLOGIES: •CAPITALISM VS COMMUNISM

• THE USSR SYMBOLIZED COMMUNISM (THE IDEOLOGY OF MARXISM-LENINISM),

• THE USA STOOD FOR LIBERAL DEMOCRACY AND CAPITALISM

• OR: A BATTLE FOR SUPREMACY BETWEEN TWO POWERFUL COUNTRIES PURSUING THEIR OWN INTERESTS

IDEOLOGY WAS MERELY A TOOL?HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1945-1991 - A.

JOÓ

NEW ARMS RACE

• Reagan charged that the Soviet Union had been engaging in “the greatest military buildup in the history of man” and that it was “plainly ...offensive in nature”

• WHITE HOUSE INITIATED THE LARGEST PEACE TIME MILITARY BUILD-UP IN US HISTORY, WITH DEFENSE EXPENDITURES CONSUMING MORE THAN 30 PERCENT OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET BETWEEN 1981 AND 1985


NEW ARMS RACE• THE SOVIET UNION WAS COMPELLED IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE

1980S TO RAISE THE SHARE OF ITS DEFENSE SPENDING FROM 22 PERCENT TO 27 PERCENT OF GDP

• IT FROZE THE PRODUCTION OF CIVILIAN GOODS AT 1980 LEVELS• REAGAN ADMINISTRATION APPEARED UNINTERESTED IN ARMS

CONTROL– REJECTED THE UNRATIFIED STRATEGIC ARMS LIMITATION TREATY (SALTII)– PROPOSED THE STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TALKS (START)


SUNK-COST TRAP

• TENDENCY OF DECISION MAKERS TO DEVOTE MORE EFFORT, E. G. MONETARY, MANPOWER, AND OTHER RESOURCES, TO A COURSE OF ACTION TO RATIONALIZE ONE’S CHOICE SELECTION AS RATIONAL, EVEN WHEN THE DECISION IS A POOR CHOICE OR NO LONGER RELEVANT


DID REAGAN HAVE A STRATEGY TO END THE ARMS RACE?

• SOVIETS DISMISSED START TALKS AS ONLY A GIMMICK, A FALSE INITIATIVE

• CONTRADICTION BETWEEN REAGAN’S HAWKISH RHETORIC AND HIS ANTI-NUCLEARISM

• LARGER VISION FOR U.S. COLD WAR POLICY, ONE THAT HE DEVELOPED BEFORE TAKING OFFICE AS PRESIDENT

• SOUGHT NOT JUST TO MANAGE THE COLD WAR, BUT TO WIN IT


REAGAN• RELIGIOUS FAITH• SPENT FIVE YEARS AS A LIFEGUARD• BELIEF THAT HE HAD A MISSION TO

FULFILL IN LIFE• AS AN ACTOR PERFORMED IN ANTIWAR

PLAYS– PLANNED TO READ AN ANTI-NUCLEAR

POEM AT THE RALLY IN 1945, BUT WARNER BROTHERS, THE STUDIO TO WHICH REAGAN WAS CONTRACTED AS A FILM ACTOR, INFORMED HIM THAT HE COULD NOT PARTICIPATE


ANTI-NUKE AND ANTI-COMMUNIST


TACTICS VS STRATEGY TO TACKLE THE SOVIET PROBLEM

• REAGAN ADMINISTRATION ANNOUNCED IT WOULD HONOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION (NATO) 1979 DECISION TO DEPLOY US INTERMEDIATE-RANGE NUCLEAR MISSILES

• ANNOUNCEMENT PROMPTED PUBLIC PROTESTS THROUGHOUT EUROPE

• THE ADMINISTRATION PUT FORWARD THE SO-CALLED ZERO OPTION


ZERO OPTION

• SOVIET-AMERICAN RELATIONS WERE AT A VERY LOW POINT• REAGAN PROPOSED THIS PLAN ON 18 NOVEMBER 1981• HE OFFERED NOT TO PROCEED WITH THE DEPLOYMENT OF

PERSHING II AND CRUISE MISSILES – PREVIOUSLY ANNOUNCED ON 12 NOVEMBER 1979 AND DUE TO BEGIN IN 1983 – IF THE SOVIET UNION WOULD REMOVE ITS SS-4, SS-5 AND SS-20 MISSILES TARGETED ON WESTERN EUROPE– ZERO OPTION CONSTITUTED THE BASIS OF THE INTERMEDIATE-RANGE

NUCLEAR FORCES TREATY, AGREED IN PRINCIPLE IN SEPTEMBER 1987


Korean Air Lines Flight 007 (also known as KAL007 and KE007[note 2]) was a scheduled Korean Air Lines flight from New York City to Seoul via Anchorage. On September 1, 1983, the airliner serving the flight was shot down by a Soviet Su-15 interceptor near Moneron Island, west of Sakhalin IslandAll 269 passengers and crew aboard were killed, including Lawrence McDonald, a sitting member of the United States Congress. The aircraft was en route from Anchorage to Seoul when it flew through prohibited Soviet airspace around the time of a U.S. reconnaissance mission


CLOSE TO CONFLICT• IN NOVEMBER, NATO CONDUCTED A LARGE-SCALE MILITARY

EXERCISE IN EUROPE • SIMULATED A NUCLEAR ATTACK ON THE USSR• MOSCOW TOOK STEPS TO PREPARE THE SOVIET MILITARY FOR

A LARGE SCALE NUCLEAR CONFLICT• REORIENTATION BEGAN, BUT IT WAS SLOW• REMAINED ICY UNTIL NOVEMBER 1985


SHIFT IN POLICY

• BY THE FALL OF 1983, SUPERPOWER RELATIONS WERE MORE HOSTILE THAN AT ANY PERIOD

• NOVEMBER 1983 - THE PRESIDENT HAD ESTABLISHED AN ADVISORY GROUP WHOSE PURPOSE WAS TO CHART A COURSE TOWARD “CONSTRUCTIVE COOPERATION” WITH THE KREMLIN

• REDUCE THE RISK OF WAR, CONCERN ABOUT (ACCIDENTAL) NUCLEAR CONFRONTATION

• NEGOCIATE FROM A POSITION OF STRENGTH


CONFRONTATIONAL APPROACH JETTISONED

• WHITE HOUSE HAD JETTISONED ITS CONFRONTATIONAL APPROACH BY 1984

• BETWEEN 1984 AND 1988, THE GOAL WAS TO IMPROVE SUPERPOWER RELATIONS

• STILL PRESSURE KEPT ON THE SOVIETS• EXPLOIT THE ECONOMIC WEAKNESS OF THE USSR• NO INTENTION TO BRING DOWN THE SOVIET UNION BECAUSE

OF FEAR OF INSTABILITY


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DTENTE ON STANDBY THE SECOND COLD WAR, NEW ARMS RACE, THE REAGAN DOCTRINE AND FIRST STEPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE COLD WAR ANDRS JO PhD CORVINUS 2015