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Bachelor thesis tutorial Event Studies Ernst Maug University of Mannheim http://cf.bwl.uni-mannheim.de [email protected] Tel: +49 (621) 181-1951

Event Studies - Betriebswirtschaftslehre

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Einführunghttp://cf.bwl.uni-mannheim.de [email protected] Tel: +49 (621) 181-1951
Motivation
What is an event study? - Statistical method to analyze stock prices - Measure the impact of a specific event on firm value - Analyze stock price reactions - Separate the systematic impact of events from pure chance
Why is this important? - Stock prices contain important information. - … but you have to be able to extract it. - Greatest hazard: overinterpretation
© 2015 E. Maug Corporate Finance I 3
BHP Billiton‘s bid for Rio Tinto An example
On November 8, 2007, BHP Billiton announced a bid for its competitor Rio Tinto. BHP Billiton is no. 1 in mining sector (MCAP).
- MCAP of about $240bn (AUS and UK combined) Rio Tinto is no. 3 in mining sector (MCAP).
- MCAP is about $130bn (AUS and UK combined) The deal would create the fifth largest company worldwide. Both companies are dual-listed in the UK and Australia.
© 2015 E. Maug Corporate Finance I 4
BHP Billiton‘s bid for Rio Tinto Summary data
07.11.2007 08.11.2007 09.11.2007 Rio Tinto (UK)
Price (Day-End) £43.50 £52.96 £56.24 Percent change 21.75% 6.19% MCAP (bil.) £43.37 £52.81 £56.08
BHP Billiton (UK) Price (Day-End) £17.56 £16.56 £16.28 Percent change -5.69% -1.69% MCAP (bil.) £39.31 £37.07 £36.43
UK FTSE All Share Price (Day-End) 3,285.09 3,278.30 3,237.32 Percent change -0.21% -1.25%
For calculations see Event studies.xls, tab “Overview”.
Note: MCAPs refer to the UK part of the shares only.
Overview
11/7/07
11/8/07
11/9/07
BHP Billiton (AUS)
Sigma (Pooled)
KUMBA IRON ORE - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MMX MINER ON - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MOUNT GIBSON IRON - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
GINDALBIE METALS - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
Abnormal
Avg.
Rank
Back
KUMBA IRON ORE - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MMX MINER ON - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MOUNT GIBSON IRON - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
GINDALBIE METALS - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MSCI World
Overview
Contents of this lecture: - Set-up of an event study - Calculating normal and abnormal returns - Cumulative abnormal returns - Significance tests - Potential problems and further issues
© 2015 E. Maug Corporate Finance I 6
Interpreting stock prices
Interpret a single firm’s stock price reaction to an event: - First calculate the expected return (if no event occurred) - Then calculate the return relative to a benchmark:
Difference between actual return and expected return
Limitations of this approach: - What to do if other events take place at the same time? - How do we know that the stock price reaction is actually caused by the event? - How can we find out whether a specific event is good or bad for firms in general (i.e.
for all firms on average)?
© 2015 E. Maug Corporate Finance I 7
Typical event study questions
What is the effect of positive (negative) earnings announcements? Does a hostile takeover increase the value of the acquiring company? Do divestitures create value? Does a specific amendment of the company’s charter increase or decrease the
value of this company? - Introduction of a poison pill - Introduction of an option plan for management compensation
Does the conversion of non-voting shares into voting shares ("stock unification") increase firm value?
© 2015 E. Maug Corporate Finance I 8
Set-up of an event study (1) Overview
Determine the type of event: - E.g. announcement of a tender offer
Determine the selection criteria: - E.g. all U.S. firms listed at the NYSE between 1980 and 1989
Search for all companies that fulfill the selection criteria and that were subject to such an event:
- Let j = 1, …, N identify the companies in this sample. Determine for each firm the precise event date.
- t denotes the event time (in days). - t = 0 denotes the event date.
© 2015 E. Maug Corporate Finance I 9
Event days: BHP & RIO
07.11.2007 08.11.2007 09.11.2007 Rio Tinto (AUS)
Price (Day-End) 112.22 AUD 113.40 AUD 130.90 AUD Percent change 1.05% 15.43% MCAP (bil.) 51.26 AUD 51.80 AUD 59.80 AUD
BHP Billiton (AUS) Price (Day-End) 44.86 AUD 43.24 AUD 42.47 AUD Percent change -3.61% -1.78% MCAP (bil.) 150.55 AUD 145.12 AUD 142.53 AUD
S&P ASX 200 Price (Day-End) 6,692.40 6,521.60 6,545.70 Percent change -2.55% 0.37%
For calculations see Event studies.xls, tab “Overview”.
Note: MCAPs refer to the Australian part of the shares only.
Overview
11/7/07
11/8/07
11/9/07
BHP Billiton (AUS)
Sigma (Pooled)
KUMBA IRON ORE - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MMX MINER ON - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MOUNT GIBSON IRON - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
GINDALBIE METALS - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
Abnormal
Avg.
Rank
Back
KUMBA IRON ORE - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MMX MINER ON - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MOUNT GIBSON IRON - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
GINDALBIE METALS - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MSCI World
Set-up of an event study (2) Event windows
Determine the event window: - We will search for abnormal returns over this window. - E.g. t = -20, …, +20; often asymmetric (e.g. -20, …, +10)
Issues: - Need to capture event:
When did the information reach the market? If in doubt use longer window
- When did the market digest the information? Typically instantaneously
- Mixing with other information: If in doubt use shorter window
- Was there insider trading (runup)?
© 2015 E. Maug Corporate Finance I 11
Set-up of an event study (3) Estimation period
Determine the estimation period: - Previous “clean” period used for estimating parameters - No event during this period - Infer the normal performance of the stock
e.g. t = – 220, …, – 21 Obtain the daily stock returns for all firms for both windows, i.e.
for t = – 220, …, + 20: - Beware of dividend payouts and stock splits
© 2015 E. Maug Corporate Finance I 12
Relative Price Development (AUS)
RIO Tinto (AUS) BHP Billiton (AUS) S&P ASX 200
Event window
Estimation period
For calculations see Event studies.xls, tab “Relative Price Development (AUS)”.
Diagramm2
-220
100
100
-219
99.0637871399
99.7708064747
-218
97.9222429998
98.5156138089
-217
101.377214986
100.0877381464
-216
98.5528314651
98.855822948
-215
101.0642573313
99.6418851167
-214
103.042152585
100.9669101848
-213
103.6655515798
101.5936112305
-212
102.1540372832
101.5864489328
-211
100.6835029689
101.0976221172
-210
101.5944088925
101.5685431887
-209
101.8484128884
101.5810772096
-208
104.0325740533
102.5390345223
-207
103.8348636121
102.6894427732
-206
106.3889949336
103.2946569259
-205
107.1770328048
103.3143532445
-204
107.184581749
103.3143532445
-203
107.808412112
103.144248675
-202
106.788801393
104.0771379459
-201
107.0018973013
103.3770233491
-200
107.8723984002
104.1057871365
-199
109.2771490586
104.4173470849
-198
108.5449733738
104.2490330898
-197
109.662288998
105.1156711073
-196
116.0821986551
105.6403094113
-195
113.7471305026
105.634937688
-194
115.3582908615
106.1309268013
-193
117.5450402359
106.0754189944
-192
117.4296492329
106.2992407964
-191
118.3832606118
106.7271880819
-190
119.5424908496
107.3055436184
-189
119.0569859007
106.6054290216
-188
119.1882656337
107.2571981092
-187
120.7589492733
107.2500358115
-186
118.6692577519
106.5714081077
-185
118.3892997671
107.7406532015
-184
119.0553323225
108.0808623406
-183
120.626519225
108.2223177195
-182
118.7008195278
107.3234493626
-181
111.6319163606
104.4352528291
-180
112.5451229148
104.0359547343
-179
111.6066094241
103.6026357255
-178
108.4045630132
101.2319151984
-177
111.3757555235
103.3483741584
-176
112.9065376013
104.3063314711
-175
112.8732503525
104.2526142386
-174
113.0869933131
104.3940696175
-173
114.4534240932
105.4827388626
-172
114.2966936344
105.0171895144
-171
110.681396454
102.812992408
-170
113.2834096496
104.8023205844
-169
114.485489132
104.5032946569
-168
116.7584402587
104.9222890703
-167
118.1255180912
105.2248961467
-166
118.5041156124
104.9616817075
-165
120.5303960032
106.64124051
-164
120.291130422
106.5803609798
-163
123.7594748236
107.2679415557
-162
122.7786153511
106.7934393353
-161
121.5093862133
106.0593038247
-160
122.8770392035
106.7343503796
-159
123.1733891811
107.3449362556
-158
120.9560126621
105.9268013179
-157
124.0136226089
107.6744019481
-156
126.2883711032
109.174903309
-155
125.0185668078
108.8149978513
-154
125.0264752254
108.8149978513
-153
125.0343836431
108.8149978513
-152
125.6608022155
110.1740438333
-151
126.1634181044
110.1453946426
-150
124.6458646525
110.2671537029
-149
123.0869717447
109.8660650337
-148
125.3216029931
110.9744305973
-147
123.9686884177
110.7738862627
-146
125.3787592843
111.6763357685
-145
122.1698109816
110.3907033376
-144
123.1263700435
111.1499068901
-143
123.7530761947
111.1785560808
-142
123.8022521736
110.8043260278
-141
123.8101605912
110.8043260278
-140
124.6844721095
111.2340638877
-139
121.267963791
110.1489757914
-138
121.7710110481
110.4068185074
-137
120.2934310526
110.0451224753
-136
122.8186607023
111.6906603638
-135
123.36311931
111.8321157427
-134
126.301384045
112.8939263716
-133
130.2717691777
113.4454232918
-132
128.711150797
112.8849734995
-131
131.8150609344
113.5403237359
-130
131.2863472672
113.7999570262
-129
127.9915566857
112.7596332904
-128
129.1555319741
113.6137372869
-127
126.562218038
112.6486176766
-126
127.7676046769
112.7094972067
-125
130.0055430818
113.9861767655
-124
126.833548658
113.0300100272
-123
128.7826141346
114.0416845724
-122
129.5753251618
113.5009310987
-121
129.5833054741
113.7927947285
-120
128.062876234
112.4319581722
-119
126.6661777827
111.9610371007
-118
128.6158903117
111.9359690589
-117
130.9788536102
113.1213293224
-116
128.3837423064
111.7927231056
-115
130.292474853
113.0479157714
-114
132.9451019215
113.4060306546
-113
135.763230603
114.4696318579
-112
136.101782773
114.0739149119
-111
136.6470322225
113.4704913336
-110
136.117671503
113.0049419854
-109
135.8776150801
111.5832258989
-108
135.8855953924
111.5832258989
-107
137.9192090432
111.7318435754
-106
135.5706246859
110.6700329466
-105
140.167931654
112.1114453517
-104
140.5893784199
112.6951726114
-103
143.4090887849
113.5832975218
-102
144.4095036174
114.0954018049
-101
142.8873489043
114.5412548346
-100
145.1285944657
114.3639879673
-99
146.3359222617
114.285202693
-98
144.5240318839
113.3397794012
-97
143.9943116909
112.960177625
-96
141.4789316159
110.7327030511
-95
144.3412755415
112.190230626
-94
144.9284396045
112.3567540467
-93
145.0190988286
112.1490474144
-92
148.4612016625
112.788282481
-91
150.620774838
112.7811201834
-90
153.5253209559
113.9217160865
-89
155.3540346949
113.7211717519
-88
160.7004844984
114.607506088
-87
159.17717947
113.9073914912
-86
156.4535204321
113.2556224037
-85
160.2694038419
113.9414124051
-84
162.0986208439
114.4069617533
-83
158.1327650776
114.2529723535
-82
158.0993340393
114.2672969489
-81
154.9610582326
113.3272453803
-80
156.0040347309
114.3138518837
-79
158.9929852335
114.9871078642
-78
158.5041012335
114.4248674975
-77
160.5824333914
114.9960607363
-76
157.5675288999
113.5313708638
-75
154.4696579178
112.0630998424
-74
148.969784812
108.9188511675
-73
152.3737834517
109.3826099413
-72
153.2515459159
110.0164732846
-71
148.9518830302
106.3816072196
-70
150.1610800885
107.6457527575
-69
151.9916630899
107.8104856038
-68
148.7270682849
106.0055865922
-67
148.3207194072
107.1658788139
-66
152.0574467458
109.239363988
-65
151.8996378664
110.3996562097
-64
143.6206749044
106.28849735
-63
145.6176941499
107.6421716087
-62
145.2941679734
106.8041827818
-61
137.5939573938
103.6384472139
-60
136.7730636419
102.2686577854
-59
134.4599952693
101.5434751468
-58
144.6644422445
106.2276178198
-57
147.1594761177
107.2446640882
-56
146.7544213447
107.5239936972
-55
156.298803025
110.2940123192
-54
151.7477962475
109.0191233348
-53
155.7790043015
110.7506087953
-52
155.5397387203
110.5912476723
-51
153.6832736248
109.2304111159
-50
156.5541011257
109.8517404383
-49
159.3421778201
111.8607649334
-48
159.9737009166
112.2206703911
-47
160.0246742631
112.6862197393
-46
159.4534708248
112.1383039679
-45
161.3710464203
111.9270161868
-44
164.9066842665
112.4194241513
-43
158.9006724312
110.8580432603
-42
159.4495166159
111.6512677267
-41
159.7494613289
111.3791004154
-40
160.381343899
111.5635295803
-39
163.5030120287
112.9279472855
-38
161.1056111661
112.2940839421
-37
160.4095266237
110.8813207277
-36
167.8481123686
113.8107004727
-35
170.2234415564
114.4839564532
-34
170.1914484123
113.8429308122
-33
179.0840326891
115.5189084658
-32
185.1543183915
116.082939407
-31
179.1857636979
116.0542902163
-30
180.6898009451
117.0695459103
-29
184.975731942
117.601346512
-28
184.7776620273
117.5279329609
-27
191.2232380944
119.2504655493
-26
187.7030576099
119.2504655493
-25
181.6911504088
117.5852313422
-24
183.1541357789
118.2746024925
-23
185.6140131409
119.150193382
-22
184.4190512343
119.5709783699
-21
188.9974498948
120.6542758917
-20
191.249982925
121.2559088956
-19
191.9241395821
120.8440767798
-18
193.1799244099
120.6668099126
-17
192.8570452858
119.825239937
-16
192.3679456016
119.6121615814
-15
198.1942206722
121.1807047701
-14
195.7106899519
120.0812920785
-13
190.8171049008
117.7714510815
-12
191.1590361221
119.2683712935
-11
190.3373515284
118.7938690732
-10
185.9416373157
118.6130210572
-9
190.1903987496
119.9792293368
-8
196.600458832
121.6176049277
-7
194.8642735795
120.8673542472
-6
191.6316000239
120.9371866495
-5
194.966579746
122.272955164
-4
187.0777174581
119.9076063601
-3
181.6827387282
117.8609798023
-2
183.563072866
118.6792723106
-1
186.524559591
119.8324022346
0
179.7982346974
116.7741011316
1
176.6058940718
117.205629566
2
173.4135534462
115.5869502937
3
173.8388825262
116.659504369
4
175.511944227
118.1528434322
5
171.154406103
116.8994413408
6
171.1639680989
115.7051282051
7
173.0036098332
117.0176192523
8
167.6470228762
115.0515685432
9
170.7765275288
114.3156424581
10
168.2483501962
113.42035525
11
167.5505401809
113.3469416989
12
175.2157380387
115.8752327747
13
174.559555058
115.1822804756
14
171.864294429
114.061380891
15
174.7868142234
115.3935682567
16
178.8746753055
116.9800171895
17
179.7997444862
116.9871794872
18
179.393036135
116.9388339779
19
177.7377324266
116.5323735854
20
180.5776452039
118.1940266437
Rio Tinto (AUS)
Percent change
Sigma (Pooled)
KUMBA IRON ORE - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MMX MINER ON - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MOUNT GIBSON IRON - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
GINDALBIE METALS - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
Abnormal
Avg.
Rank
Back
KUMBA IRON ORE - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MMX MINER ON - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MOUNT GIBSON IRON - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
GINDALBIE METALS - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MSCI World
Normal and abnormal returns
We need to to calculate the "normal" or expected return, E(rjt) - for each firm j and each day t in the event window. - Then we calculate the abnormal returns ARjt = rjt – E(rjt), - where rjt is the return of firm j ’s stock on day t.
There are several models for calculating normal returns. We will look at three: - Mean-adjusted return model - Market-adjusted return model - Market model
© 2015 E. Maug Corporate Finance I 14
The mean-adjusted return model

=−
t E r r r
Naïve but still frequently used model Advantage: No additional data (market index) is needed. RIO: 0.29% AR=21.75% - 0.29% = 21.45% BHP: 0.36% AR=- 5.69% - 0.37% = - 6.06%
For calculations see Event studies.xls, tabs “Rio Tinto UK” and “BHP UK”. Refer to columns D and E, line 234.
© 2015 E. Maug Corporate Finance I 15
The market-adjusted return model
( )jt MtE r r=
rMt is the return on the market portfolio: - Usually proxied by a broad market index like the S&P500
Advantage: No estimation period necessary - as long as no statistical tests are performed.
On Nov 8, 2007 the FTSE fell by 0.21%. Abnormal returns in example:
- RIO: 21.75% - (-0.21%) = 21.95% - BHP: -5.69% - (-0.21%) = - 5.49%
For calculations see Event studies.xls, tabs “Rio Tinto UK” and “BHP UK”. Refer to columns H and I, line 234.
© 2015 E. Maug Corporate Finance I 16
The market model
In the market model, the expected return is given by:
α β= + = − +ˆˆ( ) , 20,..., 20jt j j MtE r r t
and are the estimates from the following regression:α j β j
, 220,..., 21jt j j Mt jtr r tα β ε= + + = − −
Regression across observations from the estimation period
Possible statistical refinement: use log returns

+ =
Market model: Alpha & Beta
Abnormal returns on November 8, 2007: RIO: 21.75% - (0.25% + 1.6459x(-0.21%)) = 21.84% BHP: -5.69% - (0.32% + 1.8771x(-0.21%)) = - 5.62%
Rio Tinto (UK) BHP Billiton (UK) Alpha 0.0025 Alpha 0.0032 Beta 1.6459 Beta 1.8771
Rio Tinto (AUS) BHP Billiton (AUS) Alpha 0.0026 Alpha 0.0018 Beta -0.0538 Beta 1.5685
For calculations see Event studies.xls, tabs “Rio Tinto UK” and “BHP UK”. Refer to columns A-C, lines 3 and 4.
Tabelle1
Which model should be used?
The most general model is the market model:
- For βj = 0 it is equal to the mean-adjusted model.
- For βj = 1 and αj = 0 it is equal to the market-adjusted model.
- For αj = (1 – βj) rF it is equal to the CAPM (where rf is the risk-free return)
Market model is the most popular method used for calculating expected returns. - We will use this method in what follows.
Typically, the choice of the model has not much influence on the results.
( )jt j j MtE r r= +a b
( )jt j jE r r= =a
( )jt MtE r r=
( ) (1 ) ( )jt j F j Mt F j Mt FE r r r r r rb b b= - + = + -
© 2015 E. Maug Corporate Finance I 19
Cumulative abnormal returns
Calculate abnormal return ARjt = rjt – E(rjt)
Plotting CARt against t shows how the information is incorporated into prices.
Cumulate abnormal returns over the event window This is the cumulative abnormal return:
τ τ =−
Calculating CARs
Event RIO Tinto (UK) RIO Tinto (UK) time Abnormal CAR
t Return (-20, t) -20 1.13% 1.13% -19 -0.01% 1.12% -18 -0.45% 0.68% -17 -0.68% -0.01% -16 -3.39% -3.40% -15 0.77% -2.63%
For calculations see Event studies.xls, tabs “Rio Tinto UK”. Refer to columns B, I, and M, lines 214-219.
Tabelle1
Event
CAR (-20,+20) Back
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
-20 -18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
RIO TINTO (UK) RIO TINTO (AUS) BHP BILITON (UK) BHP BILITON (AUS)
Overview
11/7/07
11/8/07
11/9/07
BHP Billiton (AUS)
Sigma (Pooled)
KUMBA IRON ORE - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MMX MINER ON - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MOUNT GIBSON IRON - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
GINDALBIE METALS - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
Abnormal
Avg.
Rank
Back
KUMBA IRON ORE - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MMX MINER ON - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MOUNT GIBSON IRON - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
GINDALBIE METALS - TOT RETURN IND (~U$)
MSCI World
Significance tests
Is the abnormal return at or around the time of the event statistically significant? Null hypothesis:
- The event has no impact on firm value and observed returns are different from zero only by chance.
- H0: CAR = 0 Assumption:
- Returns rjt are independent and identically normally distributed. We will derive the tests for the market model.
- Slight changes are necessary for the other two models.
© 2015 E. Maug Corporate Finance I 23
Testing for one day and one firm
Postulate normal distribution for abnormal returns:
σ 2~ N(0, )jt jAR
can be estimated from the data in the standard way: σ 2 j
σ ε −
, 220,..., 21jt j j Mt jtr r tα β ε= + + = − −
Where are the residuals of the market model regression:ε jt
In our example: RIO: σ = 1.71% BHP: σ = 1.45%
For calculations see Event studies.xls, tabs “Rio Tinto UK” and “BHP UK”. Refer to columns A-C, line 6.
© 2015 E. Maug Corporate Finance I 24
The t-test for one day and one firm
Hence, under the null hypothesis:
σ = =
AR T
This statistic tests whether the abnormal return on the day of the announcement is significantly different from zero.
σ −
AR BHP
For calculations see Event studies.xls, tabs “Rio Tinto UK” and “BHP UK”. Refer to columns J, line 234.
© 2015 E. Maug Corporate Finance I 25
What does a t-test mean? Normal probability distribution
The t-test says that RIO’s AR is >12 standard deviations away from the mean, BHP’s AR is ~4 standard deviations away from the mean.
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Fr eq
ue nc
68% of distribution
95% of distribution
S&P500
Small Cap
Corp Bd
LT T-bond
IT T-bond
S&P500
Small Cap
Corp Bd
LT T-bond
IT T-bond
3
2
2
2
2
5
5
18
24
51
83
131
172
148
118
51
18
14
6
2
3
0
0
Sheet2
YYMM
LARGECAP
SMALLCAP
LTCRPBD
LTGOVBD
ITGOVBD
TBILL
INFLATION
2601
0
0.0699
0.0072
0.0138
0.0068
0.0034
0
Bin
Frequency
2602
-0.0385
-0.0639
0.0045
0.0063
0.0032
0.0027
-0.0037
-0.22
3
2603
-0.0575
-0.1073
0.0084
0.0041
0.0041
0.003
-0.0056
-0.2
2
2604
0.0253
0.0179
0.0097
0.0076
0.009
0.0034
0.0094
-0.18
2
2605
0.0179
-0.0066
0.0044
0.0014
0.0008
0.0001
-0.0056
-0.16
2
2606
0.0457
0.0378
0.0004
0.0038
0.0027
0.0035
-0.0075
-0.14
2
2607
0.0479
0.0112
0.0057
0.0004
0.0013
0.0022
-0.0094
-0.12
5
2608
0.0248
0.0256
0.0044
0
0.0009
0.0025
-0.0057
-0.1
5
2609
0.0252
-0.0001
0.0057
0.0038
0.005
0.0023
0.0057
-0.08
18
2610
-0.0284
-0.0227
0.0097
0.0102
0.0054
0.0032
0.0038
-0.06
24
2611
0.0347
0.0207
0.0057
0.016
0.0045
0.0031
0.0038
-0.04
51
2612
0.0196
0.0332
0.0056
0.0078
0.0089
0.0028
0
-0.02
83
2701
-0.0193
0.0296
0.0056
0.0075
0.0057
0.0025
-0.0076
0
131
2702
0.0537
0.0547
0.0069
0.0088
0.0038
0.0026
-0.0076
0.02
172
2703
0.0087
-0.0548
0.0083
0.0253
0.0038
0.003
-0.0058
0.04
148
2704
0.0201
0.0573
0.0055
-0.0005
0.0016
0.0025
0
0.06
118
2705
0.0607
0.0734
-0.0011
0.0109
0.002
0.003
0.0077
0.08
51
2706
-0.0067
-0.0303
0.0043
-0.0069
0.0029
0.0026
0.0096
0.1
18
2707
0.067
0.0516
0.0003
0.005
0.0043
0.003
-0.019
0.12
14
2708
0.0515
-0.0178
0.0083
0.0076
0.0056
0.0028
-0.0058
0.14
6
2709
0.045
0.0047
0.0149
0.0018
0.006
0.0021
0.0058
0.16
2
2710
-0.0502
-0.0659
0.0055
0.0099
-0.0034
0.0025
0.0058
0.18
3
2711
0.0721
0.0808
0.0068
0.0097
0.0083
0.0021
-0.0019
0.2
0
2712
0.0279
0.0316
0.0068
0.0072
0.0037
0.0022
-0.0019
0.22
0
2801
-0.004
0.0482
0.0027
-0.0036
0.0046
0.0025
-0.0019
More
4
2802
-0.0125
-0.0236
0.0068
0.0061
-0.0004
0.0033
-0.0097
2803
0.1101
0.0531
0.0041
0.0045
0.001
0.0029
0
2804
0.0345
0.091
0.0014
-0.0004
-0.0003
0.0022
0.002
2805
0.0197
0.0438
-0.0078
-0.0077
-0.0006
0.0032
0.0058
2806
-0.0385
-0.0842
-0.0024
0.0041
0.0017
0.0031
-0.0078
2807
0.0141
0.0059
-0.001
-0.0217
-0.0089
0.0032
0
2808
0.0803
0.0442
0.0083
0.0076
0.005
0.0032
0.002
2809
0.0259
0.089
0.003
-0.0041
0.0028
0.0027
0.0078
2810
0.0168
0.0276
0.0083
0.0158
0.0032
0.0041
-0.0019
2811
0.1292
0.1147
-0.0036
0.0003
0.0019
0.0038
-0.0019
2812
0.0049
-0.0513
0.0084
0.0004
-0.0007
0.0006
-0.0039
2901
0.0583
0.0035
0.0043
-0.009
-0.0029
0.0034
-0.0019
2902
-0.0019
-0.0026
0.003
-0.0157
-0.0018
0.0036
-0.002
2903
-0.0012
-0.02
-0.0087
-0.0144
0.0005
0.0034
-0.0039
2904
0.0176
0.0306
0.0019
0.0275
0.0089
0.0036
-0.0039
2905
-0.0362
-0.1336
0.0045
-0.0162
-0.0061
0.0044
0.0059
2906
0.114
0.0533
-0.0046
0.011
0.0107
0.0052
0.0039
2907
0.0471
0.0114
0.002
0
0.0066
0.0033
0.0098
2908
0.1028
-0.0164
0.002
-0.0034
0.0052
0.004
0.0039
2909
-0.0476
-0.0922
0.0034
0.0027
-0.0014
0.0035
-0.0019
2910
-0.1973
-0.2768
0.0073
0.0382
0.0168
0.0046
0
2911
-0.1246
-0.15
-0.0018
0.0236
0.018
0.0037
-0.0019
2912
0.0282
-0.0501
0.0192
-0.0089
0.0044
0.0037
-0.0058
3001
0.0639
0.1293
0.0059
-0.0057
-0.0041
0.0014
-0.0039
3002
0.0259
0.0643
0.0072
0.0129
0.0094
0.003
-0.0039
3003
0.0812
0.1007
0.0138
0.0083
0.0161
0.0035
-0.0059
3004
-0.008
-0.0698
0.0084
-0.0016
-0.0071
0.0021
0.0059
3005
-0.0096
-0.0542
0.0057
0.0139
0.0061
0.0026
-0.0059
3006
-0.1625
-0.2168
0.011
0.0051
0.0142
0.0027
-0.0059
3007
0.0386
0.0301
0.0056
0.0034
0.0054
0.002
-0.0139
3008
0.0141
-0.0166
0.0136
0.0013
0.0022
0.0009
-0.006
3009
-0.1282
-0.1459
0.0108
0.0074
0.0063
0.0022
0.0061
3010
-0.0855
-0.1097
0.0054
0.0035
0.0076
0.0009
-0.006
3011
-0.0089
-0.0028
-0.0012
0.0042
0.007
0.0013
-0.0081
3012
-0.0706
-0.1166
-0.009
-0.007
0.0024
0.0014
-0.0143
3101
0.0502
0.2103
0.0203
-0.0121
-0.0071
0.0015
-0.0145
3102
0.1193
0.2566
0.0068
0.0085
0.0099
0.0004
-0.0147
3103
-0.0675
-0.0708
0.0094
0.0104
0.0052
0.0013
-0.0064
3104
-0.0935
-0.2164
0.0067
0.0086
0.0083
0.0008
-0.0064
3105
-0.1279
-0.1379
0.0134
0.0145
0.0119
0.0009
-0.0108
3106
0.1421
0.1819
0.0052
0.0004
-0.0214
0.0008
-0.0109
3107
-0.0722
-0.0557
0.0052
-0.0042
0.0016
0.0006
-0.0022
3108
0.0182
-0.0763
0.0012
0.0012
0.0017
0.0003
-0.0022
3109
-0.2973
-0.3246
-0.0014
-0.0281
-0.0113
0.0003
-0.0044
3110
0.0896
0.077
-0.0363
-0.033
-0.0105
0.001
-0.0067
3111
-0.0798
-0.1008
-0.0189
0.0027
0.0049
0.0017
-0.0112
3112
-0.14
-0.2195
-0.0286
-0.022
-0.0159
0.0012
-0.0091
3201
-0.0271
0.1019
-0.0052
0.0034
-0.0032
0.0023
-0.0206
3202
0.057
0.0291
-0.0238
0.0413
0.0128
0.0023
-0.014
3203
-0.1158
-0.1311
0.0356
-0.0018
0.0078
0.0016
-0.0047
3204
-0.1997
-0.222
-0.0176
0.0604
0.0194
0.0011
-0.0071
3205
-0.2196
-0.1193
0.0107
-0.0188
-0.009
0.0006
-0.0144
3206
-0.0022
0.0033
-0.0009
0.0065
0.0108
0.0002
-0.0073
3207
0.3815
0.3523
0.0043
0.0481
0.012
0.0003
0
3208
0.3869
0.7346
0.0436
0.0003
0.0124
0.0003
-0.0123
3209
-0.0346
-0.132
0.0301
0.0057
0.0027
0.0003
-0.005
3210
-0.1349
-0.1775
0.0074
-0.0017
0.0045
0.0002
-0.0075
3211
-0.0417
-0.1227
0.0073
0.0032
0.0031
0.0002
-0.005
3212
0.0565
-0.0492
0.0139
0.0131
0.0118
0.0001
-0.0101
3301
0.0087
-0.0083
0.0547
0.0148
-0.0016
0.0001
-0.0153
3302
-0.1772
-0.1278
-0.0523
-0.0259
-0.0001
-0.0003
-0.0155
3303
0.0353
0.1118
0.0047
0.0097
0.0099
0.0004
-0.0079
3304
0.4256
0.5038
-0.0095
-0.0032
0.0057
0.001
-0.0027
3305
0.1683
0.6339
0.0588
0.0303
0.0199
0.0004
0.0027
3306
0.1338
0.2617
0.019
0.005
0.0008
0.0002
0.0106
3307
-0.0862
-0.055
0.0161
-0.0017
-0.0006
0.0002
0.0289
3308
0.1206
0.0924
0.0093
0.0044
0.0073
0.0003
0.0102
3309
-0.1118
-0.1595
-0.0014
0.0023
0.0026
0.0002
0
3310
-0.0855
-0.1236
0.004
-0.0091
-0.0025
0.0001
0
3311
0.1127
0.0654
-0.0248
-0.0149
0.0027
0.0002
0
3312
0.0253
0.0055
0.0257
-0.0113
-0.0253
0.0002
-0.0051
3401
0.1069
0.3891
0.0257
0.0257
0.013
0.0005
0.0051
3402
-0.0322
0.0166
0.0146
0.0081
0.0052
0.0002
0.0076
3403
0
-0.0012
0.0187
0.0197
0.0189
0.0002
0
3404
-0.0251
0.024
0.0104
0.0126
0.0182
0.0001
-0.0025
3405
-0.0736
-0.1275
0.009
0.0131
0.012
0.0001
0.0025
3406
0.0229
-0.0024
0.0158
0.0067
0.0091
0.0001
0.0025
3407
-0.1132
-0.2259
0.0047
0.004
-0.0024
0.0001
0
3408
0.0611
0.1546
0.0047
-0.0118
-0.0092
0.0001
0.0025
3409
-0.0033
-0.0167
-0.0061
-0.0146
-0.0138
0.0001
0.015
3410
-0.0286
0.0097
0.0102
0.0182
0.019
0.0001
-0.0074
3411
0.0942
0.0948
0.0129
0.0037
0.0046
0.0001
-0.0025
3412
-0.001
0.0172
0.0101
0.0112
0.0125
0.0001
-0.0025
3501
-0.0411
-0.0328
0.0211
0.0182
0.0114
0.0001
0.0149
3502
-0.0341
-0.0592
0.0141
0.0092
0.0105
0.0002
0.0074
3503
-0.0286
-0.1189
0.0043
0.0041
0.0125
0.0001
-0.0024
3504
0.098
0.0791
0.0112
0.0079
0.0107
0.0001
0.0098
3505
0.0409
-0.0024
0.0042
-0.0057
-0.0035
0.0001
-0.0048
3506
0.0699
0.0305
0.0112
0.0092
0.0113
0.0001
-0.0024
3507
0.085
0.0855
0.0111
0.0046
0.0037
0.0001
-0.0049
3508
0.028
0.0545
-0.0042
-0.0133
-0.0071
0.0001
0
3509
0.0256
0.0357
0
0.0009
-0.0057
0.0001
0.0049
3510
0.0777
0.0994
0.0042
0.0061
0.0109
0.0001
0
3511
0.0474
0.1412
0.0069
0.001
0.0014
0.0002
0.0049
3512
0.0394
0.0598
0.0083
0.007
0.012
0.0001
0.0024
3601
0.067
0.3009
0.0082
0.0055
-0.0003
0.0001
0
3602
0.0224
0.0602
0.0054
0.0081
0.0069
0.0001
-0.0048
3603
0.0268
0.0066
0.0082
0.0106
0.0031
0.0002
-0.0049
3604
-0.0751
-0.1795
0.0026
0.0035
0.0024
0.0002
0
3605
0.0545
0.0272
0.004
0.004
0.0038
0.0002
0
3606
0.0333
-0.0231
0.0082
0.0021
0.0012
0.0003
0.0098
3607
0.0701
0.0873
0.0011
0.006
0.0022
0.0001
0.0048
3608
0.0151
0.021
0.0067
0.0111
0.005
0.0002
0.0072
3609
0.0031
0.0542
0.0067
-0.0031
0.001
0.0001
0.0024
3610
0.0775
0.0635
0.0025
0.0006
0.0025
0.0002
-0.0024
3611
0.0134
0.14
0.0109
0.0205
0.0081
0.0001
0
3612
-0.0029
0.016
0.001
0.0038
-0.0057
0
0
3701
0.039
0.1267
0.0024
-0.0013
-0.0031
0.0001
0.0072
3702
0.0191
0.0658
-0.0046
0.0086
0.0007
0.0002
0.0024
3703
-0.0077
0.012
-0.0114
-0.0411
-0.0164
0.0001
0.0071
3704
-0.0809
-0.1679
0.0068
0.0039
0.0047
0.0003
0.0047
3705
-0.0024
-0.0408
0.004
0.0053
0.008
0.0006
0.0047
3706
-0.0504
-0.1183
0.0053
-0.0018
-0.0012
0.0003
0.0023
3707
0.1045
0.1235
0.0039
0.0138
0.0059
0.0003
0.0046
3708
-0.0483
-0.0736
-0.0017
-0.0104
-0.0043
0.0002
0.0023
3709
-0.1403
-0.2539
0.0025
0.0045
0.0081
0.0004
0.0092
3710
-0.0981
-0.1093
0.0067
0.0042
0.0032
0.0002
-0.0046
3711
-0.0866
-0.1453
0.0067
0.0096
0.0042
0.0002
-0.0069
3712
-0.0459
-0.1694
0.0067
0.0082
0.0062
0
-0.0023
3801
0.0152
0.0534
0.0038
0.0057
0.0085
0
-0.0139
3802
0.0674
0.0343
0.001
0.0052
0.0052
0
-0.0094
3803
-0.2487
-0.36
-0.0087
-0.0037
-0.0012
-0.0001
0
3804
0.1447
0.2776
0.0138
0.021
0.023
0.0001
0.0047
3805
-0.033
-0.0849
0.001
0.0044
0.0023
0
-0.0047
3806
0.2503
0.3498
0.0095
0.0004
0.0075
0
0
3807
0.0744
0.1499
0.0066
0.0043
0.001
-0.0001
0.0024
3808
-0.0226
-0.1001
-0.0019
0
0.0015
0
-0.0024
3809
0.0166
-0.0157
0.0109
0.0022
-0.0013
0.0002
0
3810
0.0776
0.2136
0.008
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7101
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7110
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7111
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7112
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7201
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7203
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7205
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7207
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7208
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7209
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7210
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7211
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7212
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7301
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7302
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7303
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7307
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7309
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7310
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7312
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7402
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7405
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7410
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7501
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7502
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7503
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7504
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7505
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7506
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7507
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7508
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7510
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